The ongoing tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran are expected to raise costs and disrupt supply chains in India’s livestock and agriculture sectors, with exporters warning of pressure on margins due to rising fuel, fertiliser and logistics expenses.
Following the oil and gas shock to India, the turmoil involving the US Israel and Iran is likely to increase costs and hinder the growth of India’s livestock sector, particularly in animal products such as beef, as well as the feed and fertiliser markets.
Meanwhile, India’s Basmati rice producers are concerned, as Iran is the second largest importer of their rice.
A significant 80% of India’s animal product exports, especially the highly sought after buffalo meat, are directed towards the Gulf and the broader MENA region, with key markets such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia playing a crucial role.
Furthermore, most of India’s egg exports are sent to the UAE, Oman and Qatar. Any escalation in conflict that threatens shipping routes or drives up fuel prices will undoubtedly affect these vital shipments.
The southern states of India, including Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Karnataka, are among the largest egg producers, accounting for 54% of the country’s total egg production, valued at approximately ₹15,000 crore.
These states are also at the forefront of exports and may be adversely affected by the conflict.
Experts monitoring the sector predict that livestock exports to this region could reach $2.3–$2.5 billion in FY25, with the sector’s fortunes closely tied to the stability of West Asia.
Divya Kumar Gulati, Chairman of the Compound Livestock Feed Manufactures Association (CLFMA) of India, stated, “The immediate concern for exporters is not a collapse in demand, but a margin squeeze caused by elevated fuel, fertilizer, and logistics costs.” He further expressed concern over the ongoing conflict’s potential impact on feed markets across Asia and Africa.
“If tensions persist, the repercussions will extend beyond India, affecting livestock and feed markets throughout Asia and Africa. Policymakers and industry stakeholders must closely monitor the situation to maintain export competitiveness and ensure supply chain stability,” Gulati added.
While direct meat trade may become a casualty of geopolitical tensions, the conflict has already affected areas such as feed, fertiliser, energy and logistics, where pressures are already being felt.
The livestock sector is highly sensitive to grain and fertiliser prices. Iran is a significant global exporter of urea, and market anxiety could drive prices up by $50–$60 per tonne, further increasing input costs for feed crop cultivation.
The conflict is also affecting India’s fertiliser sector by disrupting gas supplies, allegedly forcing companies to cut urea production by 7–8%.
By the end of February 2026, India’s urea stocks stood at 5.5 million tonnes, compared to 4.9 million tonnes during the same period the previous year.
The situation is even more favourable regarding DAP, with stocks reaching 2.5 million tonnes at the end of February this year, nearly double the 1.3 million tonnes recorded a year earlier.
“Although stocks of urea and DAP are higher than last year, a prolonged disruption in imports from West Asia could tighten supplies and drive prices higher in the coming weeks,” cautioned agriculture expert Harvir Singh.
Additionally, if shipments are rerouted, similar to previous disruptions in the Red Sea, transit times could extend by 15–20 days, leading to increased freight, insurance and working capital costs.
For live animal exports, longer journeys also mean higher feed requirements and greater stress related risks.