The revamped western narrative of the Ukraine war is that the Russian military juggernaut is being brought to a halt. It parodies that the war has lasted longer than the Great Patriotic War against Nazi Germany. The summer months will show what lies in the womb of time.
The western commentators attribute this ‘reversal of fortunes’ to the fast-improving Ukrainian drone capabilities. Ukraine strikes oil infrastructure and military targets deep inside Russia while its AI drone hunters scatter enemy soldiers who slip past infantry positions along the 950-km frontline, honing new counterattacking tactics that combine drone and infantry, and creates grey zones that neither army fully controls.
The Kremlin cannot take it anymore. It played the Oreshnik card finally on Sunday night and is contemplating a full-court display of Russian military prowess through the summer months after waiting in vain like the tramps in Samuel Beckett’s play, Waiting for Godot, for two businessmen to arrive from Washington once they’re done with the Iran issue.
Ukraine has gained an advantage in drone-led grey-zone warfare—superior in numbers, software and satellite intelligence—which significantly impacts the military balance. Russian advances are the slowest so far this year. One sign that the war has entered a new phase is that President Vladimir Putin signalled he would be ready to meet directly with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Suffice it to say that the Kremlin has been eager to settle the war, but multiple factors have posed obstacles.
Principally, Zelenskyy is more fixated than ever, nudged no doubt by the Europeans, on his conviction that the war is on a razor’s edge and Russia can be defeated. Arguably, even if Washington were to twist Zelenskyy’s arms, he would choose to sit out the Trump presidency, as indeed what the Europeans are doing. Ukraine has been publicly sour on US mediation, which sets up Kyiv and Moscow for an even more protracted war.
The EU plans to give €90 billion to Kyiv to keep its head above the waterline. Flushed with funds, Zelenskyy may lose all appetite for negotiations. The Russians, realising the futility of pressuring him, are switching tack. The “spirit of Anchorage”, generated by the high-stakes meeting between the US President Donald Trump and Putin in Alaska last August, has evaporated. Meanwhile, the facts on the ground are that the Trump administration has decreased the volume of aid it gives to Ukraine but still sells weapons via Nato, and provides Kyiv with satellite intelligence support.
Munich-based Quantum Frontline issued a press release last month announcing completion of the first batch of production of the battle-proven Linza drone systems “to ensure consistent, scalable output for the armed forces of Ukraine”. The same month, the Netherlands signed a contract with Ukrainian companies to produce 600,000 drones as part of a new €175-million aid package. Aviation Week reported that Britain’s uncrewed aircraft systems manufacturers, including Malloy Aeronautics, Tekever and Windracers, are among the suppliers to benefit from a UK plan to provide 120,000 long-range strike drones for Ukraine this year. Clearly, the Europeans are striving for escalation dominance.
The proxy war is in danger of transforming as a direct EU/Nato confrontation with Russia. Neither Europeans nor Americans seem very much concerned about Ukraine’s future, although the narrative would still have us believe that Kyiv is gaining the “upper hand”, thanks to its superior drone technology. Actually, it is the EU that is putting this escalation on an aggressive footing, while itself transitioning as a sort of menagerie of metaphysical monsters supplying long-range drones on an industrial scale to Ukraine.
The bottom line is that the Trump administration’s retrenchment by no means signifies that Ukraine war is petering out; a whole new ecosystem is struggling to be born with the EU as the midwife and the American deep state providing gravitas—a commanding presence that remains invisible to the onlookers, but nonetheless earns deep respect and trust from other protagonists. This is happening at a time when the EU itself is also militarising for a war with Russia in a conceivable timeframe, which European politicians are openly discussing with a view to sensitise domestic opinion and prepare for a transition to war footing.
Last week, Russian intelligence accused Baltic countries and Poland of allowing Ukraine to use their airspace to carry out drone strikes on Russia. Conceivably, Russian retaliation would involve targeting Nato territory, but Moscow is unlikely to take such a hugely consequential escalatory step. Nonetheless, this is becoming a dangerous game, as the likelihood of nuclear weapons being used is increasing. Against this backdrop, Trump announced on Friday a new deployment of 5,000 troops to Poland, the emerging ‘frontline state’.
One alternative for Russia will be to expand the scope of the war. The annexation of Ukraine is a popular idea within Russia, but entails a costly war crossing the Dnieper and occupying western Ukraine, where Russian forces will be operating in a hostile environment, historically being a cauldron of militant Ukrainian nationalism. It may well turn into a “bleeding wound” in the way Mikhail Gorbachev characterised Afghanistan.
A more viable option in the circumstances may be to fulfil the original objectives of the special military operation that was launched in February 2022 and create new facts on the ground in Donbas. Of course, there could be a third way too, which no one wants to talk about.
Last weekend, Russia’s outspoken Deputy Chairman of Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, an avowedly influential Kremlin politician, raised the spectre of Ukraine becoming a “failed state”. Writing on the Max channel (comparable to China’s WeChat), Medvedev concluded that “the dissolution of Ukraine is inevitable” given its dysfunctional state, economic trauma, sovereignty loss, and Russia’s annexation of a fifth of its territory.
The pendulum is swinging in favour of hardliners who demand an all-out military campaign to make the Ukraine war the end of all wars for Russia. In an extraordinary statement, the Russian defence ministry announced a ‘systematic’ campaign hitting the military-industrial complex and warned foreign citizens, including diplomats and personnel of international organisations, to “evacuate” the Ukrainian capital. It is a moot question now for whom the bell tolls in Kyiv.
M K Bhadrakumar | Former diplomat
(Views are personal)