The Bangladesh government is caught between a rock and a hard place. Tarique Rahman’s administration is facing two difficult choices, either of which could invite trouble. It’s about how to deal with Sheikh Hasina’s request for a new passport and national identity card, which were cancelled in 2024 by the American-sponsored unconstitutional regime of Muhammad Yunus.
The request, filed by Hasina’s British lawyers at the Bangladesh High Commission in Delhi, has set the cat among pigeons in Dhaka. The country’s inexperienced junior foreign minister, known for making gaffes at press meets, rejected Hasina’s request and called her a “terrorist”. Another minister was more circumspect, saying the request was being examined. Dhaka is caught in a bind: issue the documents or keep demanding Hasina’s extradition.
So far, Delhi has ignored Dhaka’s extradition request, indicating that it is a judicial process that has to be followed. Bangladesh has not taken any steps to initiate the process, clearly signalling that it does not want to risk going down that path. Meanwhile, Dhaka has pegged its India policy on Hasina’s presence in Delhi, signalling that the bilateral ties cannot improve while the situation remains so.
Tarique has repeatedly rebuffed Delhi’s overtures and declined to visit despite formal invitations. Testing Delhi’s patience may be useful for the Bangladesh Prime Minister in signalling to his anti-India political opposition, and to Pakistan and China. Tarique’s party BNP’s legacy is peppered with anti-India policies that are a part of his political grooming. The BNP’s origin in ‘Bangladeshi nationalism’, as opposed to ‘Bengali nationalism’, gives it a separate identity with roots in Islamism.
Beijing and Islamabad wish to co-opt Dhaka into their anti-India caucus, and the latter seems willing to oblige. It has moved closer to Islamabad with an agenda of intelligence cooperation. Government officials are being sent to Pakistan for training, some of whom might be recruited by Inter-Services Intelligence for anti-India operations from Bangladesh. Tarique has also visited Türkiye and indicated willingness to join the Mecca alliance. Bangladesh has collaborated with China to facilitate Chinese vloggers’ visit to some poorer areas of Dhaka for a fake social media campaign claiming that the footage was from India.
Dhaka seems to believe that seeking closer ties with countries hostile to India would generate greater leverage—there seems to be no other rational explanation for its stance. India’s response would cause considerable discomfort to Bangladesh.
The posturing on Hasina displays an ambiguity emanating from nervousness concerning her return’s impact. Dhaka appears apprehensive her arrival would trigger mass gatherings of her supporters. Awami League members have allegedly held demonstrations and several incidents of violence have occurred in Dhaka and Gopalganj, Hasina’s home district. The suppressed anger of persecuted Awami Leaguers may burst forth when Hasina returns.
Bangladesh’s politics is often fought out on the streets. If that happens again, the country will be plunged into chaos and further economic crisis. At present, there seems to be no consensus on the pathway to follow if Hasina returns. Hotheads are threatening to take her from the airport to the gallows. Some legal experts have said that she cannot appeal her death sentence as the 30-day period has expired. This is despite the fact that there was no opportunity to defend her in court.
Clearly, Dhaka seems reluctant to facilitate Hasina’s return despite bold statements about wanting her back. Hasina, for herself, has reiterated she will return this December, the month when Bangladesh’s Liberation War ended with independence.
Tarique’s hands are tied—he cannot roll back all the concessions Yunus gave to the US. Today, Bangladesh is forced to buy 80 percent of its gas from the US on terms set by the latter. Yunus also facilitated a lopsided trade agreement, which forces Bangladesh to source cotton from the US to avail of tariff concessions, raising costs. This is significant as the garment industry contributes 80 percent of Bangladesh’s exports. The Yunus regime had stopped road and rail connections with India, forcing Delhi to cancel transhipment facilities for Bangladesh’s ready-made garment exports, increasing their logistics cost.
These days, garment workers are demonstrating in Dhaka demanding a wage raise. Under Hasina’s tenure, exports shot up to make Bangladesh the second-largest readymade garment exporter after China. More than 4,000 factories employed around 40 lakh workers, most of them women. The sector integrated politicians and workers as stakeholders, too. That’s why a crisis in the sector can cause a massive social upheaval.
Meanwhile, high inflation is fomenting a broader anger among the people. An energy crisis has forced closure of several commercial outfits and long hours of blackouts. There is an outpouring of public comments by Bangladeshi citizens that they were better off under Hasina. Dhaka’s default reaction has been to blame India—an old habit whose shelf-life has long expired.
Tarique may be ensuring his own survival or bowing to the wishes of his opponents. After all, he spent 17 long years in exile in London during Hasina’s tenure. That may be another factor preventing Hasina’s return anytime soon, to rule out any challenge to his government. If the BNP government collapses, the ultimate beneficiary will be the Islamists whose agenda is to turn Bangladesh into a Sharia-compliant Islamic state.
Meanwhile, Hasina’s determination to return cannot be underestimated. The astute former PM knows her people well and realises that her return would galvanise her party members. International opinion, too, does not support the ban on the Awami League.
Bangladesh’s endless cycle of political revenge has to end. If the country plunges into chaos again, the Army may be forced to adopt the 2007 model of installing a caretaker government to ensure fair elections. Politics abhors a vacuum and no one wants the Islamists to fill it.
The country needs political stability to ensure steady economic progress. A planned return of Hasina, with a clear pathway beyond, would be its best option. Hasina can surrender at the court, be imprisoned, and be given bail to mount a defence. Any misguided attempt to execute her will create a problem of unmanageable proportions. Dhaka must put the country and its people above everything else.
(Views are personal)
Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty
Former High Commissioner to Bangladesh and Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs