The Chinese warning in a blue book on the region published by the official Social Sciences Academic Press that the Indian Ocean could end up as an “ocean of conflict and trouble” if countries like India, the US and China failed to engage with one another more constructively is an oblique Chinese response to recent moves to counter Beijing’s designs to dominate the seas.
The Chinese authors of the blue book did not mention the Japanese but the recent Indo-Japanese bonhomie on prime minister Manmohan Singh’s Tokyo visit would have irked them.
China is well aware that not only are Japan, the US and India looking at forging links to thwart its moves to dominate the Indian Ocean but that the Japanese are also seriously thinking of moving some of their huge investments in China to India. Australia, too, was in the game to counter China through co-operation with Japan, the US and India but somewhere along the way it developed cold feet just as much as India did before Japanese premier Shinzo Abe’s initiative on Japan-India ties emboldened India to firm up strategic ties on Singh’s visit to Japan.
The Japanese have been exasperated by the poor infrastructure in India and the “chalta hai” attitude of people at large in this vast country. While they gnash their teeth in disgust at flight delays, the bumpy roads and the bureaucratic red tape and corruption that characterise doing business with India, they have now been jolted by the increasing signs of arrogance of China which have set many of them thinking whether it is prudent for them to put all their eggs (investment) into the Chinese market.
With tension building up over China escalating its claim over Senkaku islands which are currently under Japanese control, Japan is fearful that any further escalation could jeopardise their businesses in China. India, on the other hand, is seen as a country where, though courts take long in deciding cases, the rule of law is much stronger and foreign investment is far more safe.
One may argue this advantage for India was always there but the Japanese investors shied away, preferring instead to invest in China in a much bigger way. But the fact is that the Chinese are looking far more hegemonistic now than before they stepped up their claims to the land and territorial waters of many countries in Southeast Asia and in the Indian Ocean.
At the same time, there has been a generational change in the Japanese leadership. Abe represents a far more assertive and self-confident breed in Japan today than his pacifist predecessors. The fact that Japan under Abe is not averse to Indo-Japanese civil nuclear co-operation and Tokyo is moving towards building up a well-armed military are indications that China cannot bully Japan the way it did in the past.
In his book, Towards a Beautiful Country, Abe makes the case for Japan advancing its national interests by strengthening its ties with India. He has argued: “It will not be a surprise if in another decade Japan-India relations overtake Japan-US and Japan-China ties.”
The Chinese had taken for granted that in the coming years they would control the seas in the region but now they have to contend with a Japan-India-US axis. On its part, India has been unduly wary of China while defining its relationship with Japan. It has been very conscious that it must not rub China the wrong way. A strong equation with Japan will impart a measure of confidence in India that it can stand up to China whenever required.
The Japanese have invested heavily in China in recent years and if they are now inclined to shift some of their investments into India because of the bad blood between Beijing and Tokyo, India must play its cards cleverly to encourage Japanese companies in doing that. For too long has India had a hugely negative trade relationship with China. It is time we assert ourselves that there must be greater Chinese acceptance of Indian finished goods if the Chinese are to be allowed to flood Indian markets with cheap consumer goods which are severely hampering the Indian small scale industry.
A few months ago, the Indian and Japanese naval forces held joint military exercises off the coast of Japan; during the summit of the two prime ministers in Tokyo recently it was decided that such joint exercises be conducted on a regular basis with increased frequency.
The growing co-operation is thought of as a strategy to break what is called China’s “string-of-pearls”, the network of Chinese military bases along the primary maritime routes surrounding the Indian Ocean, linking China with ports throughout West Asia and coasts of Africa.
The Abe government has offered to supply U-2 amphibian-aircraft to India, introduce Japan’s bullet train technology in Mumbai and promised to provide financial assistance to India’s Chennai-Bangalore industrial corridor project. These would hopefully be precursors to more such projects in developing Indian infrastructure.
The Japanese are fickle and the Indians not pushy enough. That perhaps accounts for the fact that large-scale Japanese investment has been on the threshold but not materialised over the years. Too often in the past have India and Japan moved closer but then drifted apart. This time, it is vital that we develop our economic ties with Japan to counter growing Chinese economic dominance in India.
In the face of growing proof of the furtherance of the ominous China-Pakistan nexus, India should deepen its strategic ties with Japan as well as other countries in South-East Asia that are alarmed by China’s expansionist designs. It will not pay for India to be shy of projecting itself as a regional power. Clearly, Indo-Japanese co-operation can have far-reaching consequences for the region as a whole. Not only must the two countries stand up to China in its efforts to control the Indian Ocean but they must ensure that any effort by China to interfere with trade is opposed firmly.
The Indo-Japanese summit in Tokyo has given a positive direction to the strategic co-operation between the two countries. It is now up to both to ensure they move in unison and do not allow any roadblock to come in their way.
It would be a tragedy indeed if India fails to capitalise on the propitious climate that prevails between Tokyo and New Delhi. With an unabashed admirer of India at the helm in Japan, this is a golden opportunity for the two countries to take their relationship to a new level.
Kamlendra Kanwar is a veteran journalist and author. E-mail: k.kamlendra@gmail.com