VIJAYAPURA : The bypolls to the Davangere South and Bagalkot Assembly constituencies have set the stage for a politically significant contest, with the Ruling Congress and the Opposition BJP viewing the outcome through distinctly different lenses. Bypolls were necessitated following the demise of sitting Congress MLAs Shamanur Shivashankarappa (Davanagere South) and HY Meti (Bagalkot), recently.
For the Congress, the elections are largely a matter of prestige. A victory in both the seats would reinforce the perception that the Congress continues to enjoy public support in Karnataka and that voters remain satisfied with its governance. Retaining these constituencies would also help the Congress consolidate its political narrative ahead of future electoral battles.
In contrast, the BJP’s approach is more strategic than numerical. Even a win in one of the two constituencies would serve as a morale booster and provide psychological momentum. The BJP is aware that the results will not significantly alter the balance of power in the Assembly, where the Congress holds a comfortable majority. The BJP, however, is keen to use the opportunity to signal a potential shift in public sentiment. In the 2023 Assembly elections, the Congress secured a decisive mandate by winning 135 seats in the 224-member House, well above the majority mark of 113. The BJP managed 66 seats, while the JDS and others accounted for the remaining seats.
The Congress further strengthened its position by winning subsequent bypolls in Shiggaon and Channapatna. In those contests, the Congress defeated Bharath Bommai, son of MP and former CM Basavaraj Bommai, and Nikhil Kumaraswamy, son of Union Minister and former CM HD Kumaraswamy. These victories provided a significant morale boost to the ruling Congress at the time.
The current bypolls, however, present a different scenario. Unlike the previous contests, both Davanagere South and Bagalkot were already held by the Congress, increasing the pressure on the party to retain them.
Meanwhile, the BJP, with support from the JDS, is expected to mount an aggressive campaign to wrest at least one seat.
The BJP is aiming to leverage a potential victory to project a narrative of declining popularity of the Congress government. With the next Assembly elections roughly two years away, the BJP sees these bypolls as an opportunity to dent the Grand Old Party’s image and build momentum.
To counter this, the Congress has fielded candidates from the families of the deceased leaders, banking on the sympathy factor. The party has given tickets to Samarth Shamanur, grandson of Shivashankarappa in Davangere South and Umesh Meti, son of Meti in Bagalkot, hoping to retain voter loyalty.
With the polling is scheduled for April 4 and results to be announced on May 4, the outcome will give clarity as to whose strategy has worked well.