BENGALURU: Around 200 scientists and ecologists from across India have made an appeal to fellow researchers, field practitioners and policymakers to prepare for the impacts of the upcoming El Nino – a global weather phenomenon that dampens the monsoon and leads to extreme hot and dry conditions.
The letter was sent on September 16 but made public on September 19. In the letter, the signatories warned of the devastating impacts and results of the El Nino in various sectors. They cautioned that with the high probability of drought and extreme heat conditions, this year’s El Nino is likely to be catastrophic for farmers, fishermen and shepherds. In addition, delayed fruit production and changes in animal behaviour are also equally important, the scientists wrote.
They urged their fellow members and decisionmakers to take advantage of the warning signs and mobilise as a community to document and study the impact of the events. They cautioned that the increasing intensity of recent El Nino is a warning of the accelerating pace of global climate change.
Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, said, “India’s monsoon season is closing with a rainfall deficit, but the impacts may not end there. They can creep into the seasons ahead and cascade through depleted soil moisture and water storage, land and marine heatwaves, stressed crops and livelihoods, forest fires, coral bleaching and less visible ecological changes.
This gives us a short but valuable window to act. We must document these changes and safeguard the ecosystems.”
Jayashree Ratnam, a scientist at the National Centre for Biological Science said, “The coming year will be a litmus test for tropical forests and trees. Huge forest trees may appear indestructible, but in the Western Ghats, many of them are already near the limit of the heat they can tolerate. Large trees are especially susceptible to extended droughts. Trees in cities are also vulnerable because of the urban heat island effect.”
Rohan Arthur, a marine biologist with the Nature Conservation Foundation, said, “Coral reefs can be resilient but they need at least a decade after every major die-back of coral to show significant recovery. The last major El Nino was in 2024, and barely two years after that event, the projected scale and intensity of the heat wave that is currently headed our way, which is scary.”