KOCHI: Speculation is intensifying within the UDF over possible seat swaps between the Congress and its allies — the IUML and Kerala Congress (Joseph) — ahead of the 2026 Assembly polls. Informal discussions suggest a reshuffle of constituencies could boost the winning prospects of both Congress and its partners.
As many as five seats where IUML contested and lost — Kalamassery, Guruvayur, Punalur, Azhikode, and Thiruvambady — are being discussed for swapping with the Congress. Among the proposals, Kalamassery could be swapped for Kochi.The IUML is also exploring the possibility of exchanging Thavanoor, where its bete noire K T Jaleel has repeatedly defeated Congress candidates, for Guruvayur, a traditional League bastion. Congress candidate K Muraleedharan led the Guruvayur segment in the Thrissur Lok Sabha seat during the 2024 parliamentary elections.
Punalur is another seat in play, likely to be swapped with Eravipuram. The League is also keen on trading Azhikode for Kannur, though Congress leaders are cautious as Rijil Makkutty has emerged as a promising candidate there. Thiruvambady, meanwhile, could be vacated in favour of either Beypore or Nadapuram.
The underlying calculation is that both Congress and IUML would gain by contesting from constituencies where they enjoy stronger social and community support. For instance, in Kalamassery, Industries Minister P Rajeeve of the CPM has built a formidable base through development work, farmer outreach, and other initiatives. Congress leaders believe their ‘hand’ symbol could help reclaim Christian and upper-caste Hindu votes there, while IUML sees Kochi as a better fit given its Muslim and Latin Catholic presence.
Within the Kerala Congress (Joseph) fold, Ettumanoor has become the main bargaining point. Congress believes it has a higher chance of victory there and is considering swapping it with Poonjar.
Kuttanad is also on the radar, but KC(J) has reportedly promised the seat to Reji Cherian. That move risks upsetting the Changanassery archdiocese, which could back the LDF if it fields Joseph K Nellveli of KC-M from the constituency, said a political observer.
For Changanassery, P C Thomas, deputy chairman of KC(J), is likely to stake claim. Kanjirappally too is in contention, though the name of Adv Mathew Antony, Congress’ AICC joint secretary and national spokesperson, is doing the rounds. Meanwhile, senior Congress MP Anto Antony is also pressing for an assembly ticket after being overlooked for the KPCC president’s post.
But with the Syro-Malabar Church said to be unhappy over his Pentecostal links, the leadership is reluctant to accommodate him at the cost of straining ties with the Church. In Ernakulam, DCC president Mohammed Shiyas has begun groundwork in Kalamassery.
However, if the seat ultimately stays with the League, Shiyas could be shifted to his hometown of Aluva. That scenario would mean three-time MLA Anwar Sadath may be asked to vacate the seat. Shiyas, a close confidant of Leader of Opposition V D Satheesan, is seen as a rising figure in district politics.
If Congress vacates Kochi, IUML could field either veteran leader Ebrahim Kunju or Adv Mohammed Shah. Shah, who played a key role in bringing IUML leaders into dialogue with Latin Church heads to settle differences over the Munambam waqf issue, is seen as a strong contender.
While still at the stage of speculation, these manoeuvres underline the churn within the UDF as it seeks to recalibrate its seat-sharing strategy to improve its prospects in 2026. Sources said formal discussions with the UDF on possible seat swapping will begin only after the local body polls in November.