KOCHI: After 10 years in the opposition, the Congress-led UDF appears set for a return to power in Kerala — if exit polls released on Wednesday are any indication.
Across 10 different surveys, the UDF has emerged as the clear frontrunner, with projections suggesting a comfortable majority. Seat forecasts for the front range from a low of 66–76 seats by People Insight to a high of 90–92 seats predicted by Political Laboratory. Axis My India estimates the UDF tally between 78 and 90 seats, reinforcing the possibility of a decisive comeback.
In contrast, the LDF, led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, is projected to fall short of retaining power. Its seat estimates vary widely, from 49–62 (Axis My India) to a maximum of 62–69 (PMARQ), suggesting a potential dip.
The BJP-led NDA is expected to remain on the margins, with most exit polls predicting single-digit figures. Axis My India places the NDA between zero and three seats, while CNN-Vote Vibe and Journo Mirror estimate ranges of 0–4 and 0–5 respectively. Only People Insight offers a relatively higher projection of 10–14 seats.
Leadership preferences also reveal interesting trends. Within the UDF, V D Satheesan leads the race for the chief minister’s post with 21% support in the Axis My India survey followed by Ramesh Chennithala at 8%. K C Venugopal (3%) and Shashi Tharoor (1%) trail behind.
For the LDF, Pinarayi remains the undisputed choice, securing 33% support, far ahead of K K Shailaja.
Analysts attribute the UDF’s projected surge to strong anti-incumbency sentiment, and criticism of administrative centralisation, along with improved grassroots mobilisation and minority consolidation.