Scenario-I
BJP stages a big upset
With exit polls going gung-ho about Modi 3.0 at the Centre with an overwhelming majority and Odisha contributing significantly by sending maximum number of BJP MPs, there seems to be a direction on the outcome of Lok Sabha election nationally. In Odisha, a 4 to 5 per cent swing in favour of BJP will be enough to tilt the scale for the saffron party to romp home with startling figures. With no signs of split voting like what happened in 2019 elections and voters’ silence have made it difficult to guess the poll outcome. There is a sense of ground-level anti-incumbency against BJD across the state which may lead to a significant increase in seats for the BJP. However, will that translate into votes and the saffron party garners numbers to form government is a big question.
Scenario-II
BJD retains power
If BJD storms back to power for a sixth term in a row defying anti-incumbency, Naveen Patnaik will create a record as the longest-serving chief minister in the country. He is one of the rare breeds of politicians who has already tamed two Modi waves in 2014 and 2019. Debunking another Modi tsunami which is predicted to sweep eastern India states of Odisha and West Bengal will put Patnaik at a higher pedestal and may take generations to break his showing. All the credit of the BJD’s win will go to one man, VK Pandian, the whipping boy of the Opposition, which derided him throughout the election campaign.
Scenario-III
BJP falls short of forming govt
A scenario discussed widely in the state where BJP winning 50-60 seats and BJD is able to form the government with a simple majority or falling short of a few seats that requires the support of either Congress or the saffron party. With a simple majority, many believe that the BJD government may not last long if BJP returns to power at the Centre with robust numbers. Given the past record of the Modi government and what it has done in several states like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka, a BJD government with less than 80 seats will find itself on slippery ground. If Pandian will be at the helm of the BJD government, there is a belief that it will not take much hard work for the BJP to deploy its machinery and topple the government.
Scenario-IV
Hung Assembly
With one of the exit polls predicting that the BJP will surge by securing a vote share of 42 per cent and BJD may come down to the same level by losing 3 per cent votes, it will be Catch-22 situation for the two rivals. The BJD will have to make a choice between the devil and the deep sea if it wants to form a government for the record sixth time. The BJP has always been a naturally ally for the BJD but it has already spoiled the game during the alliance talks before this election. As the BJD reportedly bargained for a government with outside support from BJP, the saffron party may not like to join the government. The BJD has the option of inviting the Congress to join provided the latter garners the required numbers to keep the government afloat. However, it is also unlikely that Naveen Patnaik will want to discontinue his ‘friendly relationship’ with PM Modi.