CHENNAI: A depression over the southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm on November 16 and a severe cyclonic storm on November 17. However, uncertainty over its track and eventual landfall location continues to keep forecasters cautious.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday that the depression was centred over the southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal, about 860 km east-southeast of Chennai, 1,040 km south-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 1,160 km south-southeast of Gopalpur in Odisha.
The system is very likely to move north-northwestwards and intensify into a cyclonic storm over the central parts of the south and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal on November 16. It is likely to strengthen further into a severe cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal on November 17.
However, its movement and eventual landfall location remain uncertain, with different weather models indicating different tracks. While some artificial intelligence-based models favour north Tamil Nadu, operational models suggest a possible movement towards Andhra Pradesh, said weather blogger Pradeep John.
The system's track will determine the distribution of rainfall across Tamil Nadu, particularly in the Chennai region. Even if it crosses the Andhra Pradesh coast, a landfall near Nellore could bring substantial rainfall to Chennai and neighbouring districts. However, a landfall farther north, towards Ongole or Machilipatnam, could leave north Tamil Nadu with less rainfall, Pradeep said.
The impact will also depend on the system's intensity and how close it moves to the coast. Forecast models are expected to provide greater clarity over the next few days as meteorologists monitor changes in its structure and direction.
Weather experts have cautioned against treating landfall projections made several days in advance as final, pointing to previous cyclones whose forecast tracks changed as landfall approached.
Cyclone Thane in December 2011, for instance, was initially forecast to make landfall near Chennai. However, the projected landfall zone shifted south towards Cuddalore during the final 36 hours. The cyclone crossed the coast near Cuddalore in the early hours of December 30.
Cyclones Vardah in 2016, Nivar in 2020 and Fengal in 2024 also illustrate how forecast tracks can change as meteorological observations improve.
With the system yet to intensify into a cyclonic storm, forecasters have urged people to follow subsequent updates before drawing conclusions about its landfall. They have also cautioned that speculative projections circulated as confirmed forecasts could create unnecessary public anxiety.
The next few days will be crucial in determining whether the system approaches the north Tamil Nadu coast or moves towards Andhra Pradesh, and how much rainfall Chennai and other parts of the State receive.