HYDERABAD: Telangana is witnessing one of its most unusual monsoon starts in recent years, with the southwest monsoon virtually coming to a standstill after entering the state and leaving it with a 23% rainfall deficit midway through June.
What is worrying meteorologists, however, is not merely the deficit itself but the stage at which it has appeared. The looming danger can be assessed from the fact that several previous El Nino years, including some that eventually ended in drought, did not witness such a sharp rainfall shortfall this early in the season. With 27 of Telangana’s 33 districts already under rainfall deficit and the monsoon yet to cover nearly half the state, weather experts say the current pattern is raising concerns about how the remainder of the season could unfold.
The southwest monsoon entered Telangana on June 8 through southern parts of the state. However, instead of progressing steadily across the state as it normally does, the monsoon slowed dramatically within days. After a brief advance around June 13 and 14, it stalled again, leaving nearly half the state outside the monsoon zone.
Even after nearly 10 days since its onset, the monsoon has managed to cover only about 50% of Telangana, an exceptionally slow pace for this time of the year. Under normal circumstances, the monsoon would have swept across the entire state by now and advanced well into central India.
Meteorologists say the present situation stands out when compared with previous El Nino years. An analysis of IMD rainfall data shows that June 2015, one of the strongest El Nino events on record, recorded rainfall 14% above normal across India. In 2002 and 2004, both remembered for drought conditions later in the season, June rainfall remained near normal, with deficits emerging only during subsequent months. Even in 2023, the most recent El Nino year, June rainfall remained within the IMD’s normal range despite ending slightly below average.
Only in 2009 and 2014 did June rainfall collapse sharply. Both years later witnessed severe monsoon stress across large parts of the country. While it is too early to draw direct parallels, weather experts say Telangana’s current trajectory appears closer to those years than to the relatively benign El Nino seasons.
The worry is that the state is entering the core monsoon period from a position of weakness. In many previous drought years, the monsoon had at least established itself across Telangana before rainfall deficits began to emerge. This year, the monsoon itself appears to have stalled.
The delayed advance has also created contrasting weather conditions across Telangana. Districts where the monsoon has not yet arrived continue to remain under the influence of hot, dry northwesterly winds, while areas that have received the monsoon are witnessing only isolated thunderstorms and scattered showers instead of widespread seasonal rainfall.
The combination of deficient rainfall and intense heat is adding to concerns. Several districts in northern Telangana are witnessing heat wave conditions even though it is the third week of June, when temperatures usually begin to ease following the monsoon’s arrival.
Adilabad recorded a maximum temperature of 41.3°C, 5.5°C above normal, while Hanamkonda registered 40.5°C, around 5.6°C above normal. Hyderabad is also recording temperatures close to 39°C against a seasonal normal of 34.2°C.
Weather experts attribute the weak monsoon performance partly to the absence of a well-established monsoon trough, a key seasonal system that drives widespread rainfall across India. Because the monsoon has failed to advance adequately into central India, the trough has not formed in its usual position, depriving Telangana and neighbouring regions of sustained rainfall.
The implications extend beyond a delayed onset. June marks the beginning of sowing operations for the kharif season, and every week of inadequate rainfall increases uncertainty for farmers. A prolonged delay could affect soil moisture, groundwater recharge and reservoir inflows, leaving the state increasingly dependent on a strong monsoon recovery during the weeks ahead.
For now, weather experts expect the current pattern of isolated thunderstorms, scattered showers and persistent heat to continue for another four to five days. What is making forecasters uneasy is that Telangana has entered the second half of June with a substantial rainfall deficit, a stalled monsoon and heat wave conditions occurring simultaneously — warning signs that have appeared much earlier than in many previous El Nino years.