US President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw from the US Presidential race was not exactly a surprise. After his disastrous debate performance against Donald Trump in the last week of June, calls for him to step down grew louder.
But some people were betting on it much earlier. Back in September 2023, Polymarket -- the world's largest prediction market -- launched a market on the likelihood of Biden dropping out. Traders here were well ahead of the curve.
Prediction markets don't always get it right of course. They were wrong on the 2022 US midterm elections. But they offer an alternative which many find preferable to traditional analysis based on surveys.
Founded in 2020, Polymarket users bet on the probability of future events by trading in cryptocurrency.
More than $200 million has been wagered on Polymarket over the 2024 Presidential race.
Biden's withdrawal, however, has made little change to Trump's chances of winning on Polymarket so far. On July 22, it gave Trump a 65 percent chance of winning the election, down just 1 percent from what it was before Biden stepped down.