The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Friday that El Niño conditions are likely to emerge as early as May 2026, raising the possibility of shifts in global temperature and rainfall patterns.
El Niño refers to the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon typically lasts between nine and 12 months and recurs every two to seven years, according to the WMO.
“After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the months that follow,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at the WMO.
El Niño and its counterpart La Niña form the two phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of the most influential climate systems on the planet. Together, they play a key role in shaping global weather patterns, including rainfall distribution, drought risk, and extreme weather events.
For the May–June–July period, the WMO expects land surface temperatures to be above normal across most regions. The strongest signals are projected over southern North America, Central America and the Caribbean, as well as parts of Europe and North Africa. Rainfall patterns, however, are expected to vary significantly by region.
Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that India is likely to receive below-normal monsoon rainfall in 2026, marking a reversal after three consecutive years of relatively stronger monsoons. The IMD estimates seasonal rainfall between 90 and 95 percent of the long-period average, with a central forecast of about 92 percent. The country’s long-period average monsoon rainfall, based on 1971–2020 data, stands at 87 cm.
Under IMD classification, normal rainfall ranges between 96 and 104 percent of the long-period average.
M. Ravichandran, Secretary in the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences, said the upcoming monsoon season is expected to be weaker overall, with rainfall levels projected at around 80 percent in some assessments.
He added that current weak La Niña-like conditions in the Pacific are transitioning toward neutral phases, while neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail. A positive IOD is expected to develop later in the monsoon season, which could influence rainfall distribution.
The WMO’s latest seasonal climate outlook for May–June 2026 also points to a rapid warming trend in the Niño 3.4 region. Multi-model ensemble forecasts suggest a broad likelihood of above-normal land surface temperatures across much of the globe.
(With inputs from ANI)