Narendra Modi’s red carpet welcome and signature bear-hug for Russian President Vladimir Putin signals New Delhi’s stamp of continuity for its ‘multi-alignment’ foreign policy. The timing is important: India has cut back on Russian oil imports following the new Western sanctions. For Putin too, facing isolation on the Ukraine war, to connect with India on the 25th anniversary of the two countries’ special relations, became important.
For both the leaders, it is both optics and business. For Vladimir Putin, to break the image of being a pariah, and being welcomed in the capital of an important democracy, is one way of telling the world he is not isolated.
There is business too. Despite the West’s sanctions, and India increasingly leaning towards the U.S., the Russians are keen to keep trade and investment going. It is significant crude imports from Russia dropped by a whopping 38% in value terms and 31% in volume in October this year, compared to October 2024, the sharpest fall so far. Imports in December are expected to fall to a potential three-year low. Reliance has announced it has stopped all crude purchases from the two Russian sanctioned firms, Rosneft and Lukoil, for its refineries.
Those who accompanied Putin to New Delhi is an indication the Russians want to both salvage what they can for their crude exports, and build on the being India’s largest defense partner. Putin’s delegation included Andrei Belousov, his defense minister, executives of Russian state arms exporter Rosoboronexport, and heads of energy firms, Rosneft and Gazprom Neft.
As a teaser, Putin, at the joint press conference in Delhi on Friday, said Russia is ready to continue “uninterrupted shipments” of fuel to India, fully aware US sanctions and pressure are in force against Russian oil.
Keeping Trump at bay
Though diversification in armaments shopping has reduced Russian imports from 72% in 2010 to about 36% currently, Russia still remains India’s largest armaments supplier and accounts for over 60% of India’s existing arsenal. In the slew of new treaties, Putin is hoping to bump up sales of the S-400 air defense systems, which played an important role in the recent skirmish with Pakistan. On the agenda too is the Su-57 fifth-generation stealth fighter jets that can compete with Pakistan’s China-made fifth-generation J-35 stealth jets.
For Prime Minister Modi the Russian summit has been a handy demonstration of independence from the US. To add to the simmering friction on tariffs on Indian exports to the US, Donald Trump has persisted in claiming credit for stopping the war with Pakistan. India says it was a bilateral decision and the US had no hand in it.
Despite India’s protests, Marco Rubio, US’ Secretary of State, again repeated the claim a few days ago. The issue has become a big domestic bugbear for the government. Congress spokesperson Jairam Ramesh insists Trump has taken credit 61 times so far for ending the war!
The Indian Prime Minister has a more serious economic agenda too. India’s sagging exports on account of the withering 50% US tariffs is forcing a hunt for newer markets. Though trade with Russia has ballooned from $10 billion in 2022 to $69 billion by March 2025, this is primarily because of the spike in Russian crude imports. India’s exports – mainly pharmaceuticals and machinery – are hardly $5 billion. To bridge the huge trade deficit at $59 billion, some products like textiles, gems and jewelry and electronics, originally exported to the US, could find Russian markets.
Labour exports are another significant opportunity, and a target of 10 lakh skilled workers could benefit from the current deal-making. The Russian ministry of Labour expects a shortfall of 3.1 million by 2030, opening a big window for Indian workmen. India, however, must guarantee the safety of Indian employees considering the large numbers who have landed up or been killed on the Ukraine front as reluctant fighters.
Widening India’s options
The India-Russia summit is being watched closely. European Union (EU) envoys in Delhi have privately urged India to persuade Putin to end the Ukraine war. China, on the other hand, has supported India continuing buying Russian oil.
Expectedly, the Trump regime is watching all this bonhomie in the East with suspicion, worried a new Russia-China-India axis is forming. India buying arms from Russia has always been an irritant for the Trump administration too. In these circumstances it is unlikely the US will lift the onerous trade tariffs in a hurry.
Having said that, India’s closest international partner will continue to be the United States, despite its shifting and traumatic policy changes. The two are collaborating big time in technology and investment. For instance, the newly established U.S. Office of Critical and Emerging Technologies is working with Indian counterparts to streamline AI infrastructure partnerships.
Going forward, India’s multi-alignment strategy is probably the only way; but it cannot be bifocal with the only options being the US and Russia. The European Union, which has reached high levels of technology development, is a serious third option. The EU too sees India as a large consumer market and is keen to invest.
Locally in South Asia, India was once the undisputed regional leader, which internationally allowed it to punch above its weight. Unfortunately, relations with its immediate neighbours have broken down. The latest has been the yawning chasm with Bangladesh. If this can be mended, the expanding South Asian market can be a robust alternative too.