MUMBAI: Silver continues to set new records amid tight supply and industrial demand coupled with the ban in exports of the white metal that China announced over the weekend effective January 1. Domestic futures crossed Rs 2.53 lakh on the MCX earlier in the day following the spot price of silver hit an all-time high at $82.95 an ounce (28.35 g) in the international markets Monday, up 2.55% in a day and 18.38% in a week.
So far in 2025, by rallying over 192% silver has outshone gold by a wide margin as the yellow metal has rallied around 73% so far only, propelled by its designation as a critical US mineral, supply constraints, and low inventories amid rising industrial and investment demand.
This rally comes amidst the metals gaining sharply in the last week to the tune of 3.8% (gold) and over 14% for silver. Gold futures climbed to a record high of $4,581.30/ounce on the CME last weekend, while silver futures surged to nearly $79.70/ounce, marking the largest one-week dollar gain on record for silver. In the domestic market, the silver futures on MCX peaked at Rs 2,53,280/kg of 999 purity, up 5.63% from its previous close at Rs 2,39,787 while gold futures peaked at Rs 1,39,940/10 grams last week, marking the seventh consecutive positive weekly close.
The parabolic rise of the white metal has been reinforced by speculative inflows and lingering supply dislocations across key trading hubs following the historic short squeeze in October. China’s export curbs from next month have further strengthened the structural bullish outlook. But in Chennai, Hyderabad and Kerala, the metal was spot trading at Rs 2,73,900, while in Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata and Bengaluru the spot metal was quoting Rs 2,50,900, according to the price quoted by Goodreturns.
According to Renisha Chainani, head of research at Augmont Enterprises, silver has crossed the $80.0z mark (Rs 2,50,000) mark last week—which is up 16% last week, 40% this month, and 175% in 2025.
“This rise has been fueled by speculative inflows, residual supply disruptions from an October short squeeze, central bank buying, ETF inflows, and three US Fed rate cuts, with markets gradually pricing in another easing in 2026,” she said.
She further said that gold has already touched the target resistance of $4,575 (Rs 1,40,000) and prices are likely to consolidate here. Bull trend can continue until prices are trading above $4,450 (Rs 1,36,000).Similarly, silver too has touched the target resistance of $75 (Rs 235,000) and $80 (Rs 2,50,000) and there is more likelihood of consolidating from here after this sharp run-up.
Bull trend can continue until prices are trading above $75 (Rs 2,40,000).International gold support level is seen at $4450/oz and resistance is at $4575/oz, the same for domestic prices is at Rs 1,36,000/10 gm and Rs 1,40,500/10 gm, respectively. Similarly global silver support level is : $75/oz and resistance level is at $82.5/oz and the domestic prices respectively are seen at Rs 2,40,000/kg and Rs 2,54,000/kg, Chainani said.
Following a marginal decline in the international prices of gold, its February delivery was quoting Rs 14,171 /g. down Rs 71 from Rs 14,242 on MCX while the silver March delivery was quoting Rs 2,46,062, up Rs 6,275/kg or 2.62% on MCX. According to Goldman Sachs, gold, which is regarded as an effective hedge against inflation, as much as 70% of global institutional investors expect gold prices to increase further next year and many analysts have the near–term target at $5,000/oz.
Meanwhile, from a market capitalization point of view, silver sits at a market capitalisation of $4.22 trillion, just 8.1% behind Nvidia’s $4.592 trillion, thus overtaking Apple Inc and Alphabet in terms of market capitalization. The white metal is inching towards overtaking Nvidia Corporation to become the world’s second-most valued asset after gold, which commands a market capitalisation of $31.598 trillion, as of December 26, 2025).
According to Surendra Mehta, the national secretary of India Bullion & Jewellers Association, the way silver is moving, it is likely to be the second-most valuable asset, surpassing Nvidia and he thinks that the silver price may further surprise everyone, as the white metal is moving from the LBMA vault to China for better pricing. Silver prices have jumped by a whopping 156.14% in a year on MCX–-from Rs 91,600 on December 26, 2024, to Rs Rs 2.53 lakh on December 29, 2025; whereas, gold has given a return of 79.75% in the same period, rising from Rs 77,460 to Rs 1,39,233/10 grams of 24-carat purity.
The rally has been driven by a mix of global rate cuts, rising liquidity, a softer dollar and structurally strong industrial demand. Silver’s recent surge has been fueled by growing anticipation of another rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for January 27-28.
“China is also ready to set export restrictions on silver from January 1. There are no sanctions, but control of the metal in other markets increases further bottlenecks in the market,” said Manav Modi, commodities analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
As 2025 draws to a close, the outlook for these metals appears firmly bullish. Structural supply constraints, tariff-driven trade distortions, and sustained demand from AI infrastructure and renewable energy technologies have combined to reset expectations, particularly for silver and copper. Gold, meanwhile, continues to stand out as the best hedge, underpinned by geopolitical risks, trade frictions, and expectations of further interest rate cuts in the year ahead.