India has fallen below the UK in size of the economy to sixth place according to the latest IMF estimates for 2006. As per the April global economic outlook of the IMF, India is likely to end 2026-27 with a GDP size of $4.15 trillion, below the UK’s $4.26 trillion. The drop in ranking is possibly due to the recent revision in base year due to which the nominal GDP has been revised downward. The depreciating rupee has also played its role in the fall in India’s ranking.
India had surpassed the UK in 2022-23 to become the fifth largest economy in the world, and was slated to become the fourth largest economy by 2025-26. However, the latest government GDP estimates released in February show that the nominal GDP of the country has declined from the Rs 357 lakh crore in the old series to Rs 345.5 lakh crore in the new series. At an average exchange rate of Rs 87 for FY26, India’s GDP in dollar terms would fell short of $4 trillion.
“The change in the rank reflects new base year of GDP where nominal GDP is lower than old base GDP by 4%. Further rupee depreciated against the dollar by 11% in FY26. The combination resulted in the GDP ranking revision,” says Gaura Sengupta, chief economist, IDFC First Bank.
A query sent to secretary, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (Mospi), Saurabh Garg, remained unanswered at the time of filing of the report.
Earlier, chief economic advisor to government of India V Anantha Nageswaran has said that based on current projections, India is expected to cross the $4 trillion-mark comfortably in 2026-27, although relative global rankings will depend on external factors.
As per the IMF’s latest estimates, Japan with $4.38 trillion would remain the 4th largest economy behind Germany ($5.45 trillion), China ($20.85 trillion) and the US ($32.3 trillion).