The Indian economy is estimated to have grown at over 8% in the third quarter of the current financial year, according to several economists. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) will release the new series of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on February 27, shifting the base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23. With the change in the base year, headline growth figures are likely to undergo revisions.
In its latest research report, State Bank of India (SBI) pegged Q3 growth at 8.1%, while IDFC First Bank was slightly more optimistic, estimating growth at 8.2%. However, both banks based their calculations on the old GDP series and cautioned that significant methodological changes and fresh data in the revised series could alter the final numbers.
“Growth recovery is showing signs of becoming broad-based in Q3 FY26, led by both rural and urban demand. Strong crop output and a pick-up in wage growth have supported rural recovery. Meanwhile, urban demand has gained pace, aided by GST cuts timed with the start of the festival season,” said Gaura Sen, Chief Economist, IDFC First Bank Economics Research.
According to the SBI report, despite global headwinds, the Indian economy has retained strong momentum, supported by robust rural consumption driven by both farm and non-farm activity. “Backed by fiscal stimulus, urban consumption has shown a consistent uptick since the last festive season,” the report noted.
In contrast, rating agencies have projected relatively moderate growth. ICRA expects Q3 GDP expansion at 7.2%, while India Ratings and Research has forecast growth at 7%.
Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist and Head – Research & Outreach at ICRA, said, “The estimated sequential slowdown reflects an unfavourable base effect, contraction in government capital spending, subdued state government revenue expenditure, and weak merchandise exports. Nevertheless, healthy festive demand, supported by GST rationalisation, likely kept growth above 7% during the quarter.”
The Reserve Bank of India has projected 7% GDP growth for Q3 following its December Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
MoSPI will also release the second advance estimates of GDP for FY26 on February 27, 2026, incorporating additional data and revisions. As a result, previously published growth figures for Q1 and Q2 are also expected to be revised under the new 2022-23 base year series.