Global oil and gold prices extended their volatile run on Saturday (February 28) as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East injected fresh uncertainty into commodity markets and kept investors on edge heading into the new month.
Crude oil prices climbed to multi-month highs after reports of military escalation involving the US, Israel and Iran heightened fears of supply disruption in one of the world’s most critical energy corridors. Brent crude traded above the $70 per barrel mark, while West Texas Intermediate hovered in the high $60s, reflecting a sharp rise in the geopolitical risk premium built into prices over the past 48 hours. The immediate concern for traders is the security of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime passage that handles a significant share of globally traded crude. Even the perception of potential disruption in this chokepoint is enough to trigger aggressive buying by refiners and speculative funds seeking to hedge against tighter supply.
Market participants are also closely watching signals from OPEC+, which is scheduled to review production levels amid the renewed volatility. Some producer nations are understood to be considering output adjustments to prevent an uncontrolled spike in prices that could dampen global demand. However, the ability of additional barrels to offset sudden geopolitical shocks remains uncertain, especially if tensions escalate further or if infrastructure becomes a direct target. For now, oil markets are being driven more by risk perception than by fundamental shifts in demand or inventory data.
"MCX Crude Oil is attempting to resolve a multi-session compression structure, trading near Rs 6,100 after testing the Rs 6,130– Rs 6,150 supply band. The descending intraday resistance trendline is being challenged, and price is stabilising above the Rs 5,950–Rs 6,000 former resistance cluster. The breakout-retest framework remains constructive as long as Rs 5,950 holds as support," says an early day analysis by senior markets analyst and chief executive officer at wealth tech firm R Punmudi.
His analysis also reads that acceptance above Rs 6,150 would confirm higher-high continuation toward Rs 6,250–Rs 6,350. Conversely, rejection below Rs 5,950 would shift structure back into range-bound conditions between Rs 5,900–Rs 6,100.
The rally in crude is occurring against a backdrop of relatively stable global consumption trends and cautious economic sentiment in major importing nations. Traders note that while physical supply has not yet been materially affected, futures markets are reacting pre-emptively, pricing in the possibility of disruption rather than waiting for confirmation. This forward-looking behavior has amplified intraday swings and increased hedging activity among airlines, refiners and commodity funds.
Gold prices, meanwhile, are holding firm near elevated levels as investors seek protection from geopolitical instability and broader financial market uncertainty. The precious metal has benefited from renewed safe-haven demand, with international prices remaining resilient even after some month-end profit-taking. The dual rise of oil and gold underscores a classic risk-off environment: crude gains on fears of supply shocks, while gold strengthens as a store of value during periods of conflict and volatility.
In key consumer markets such as India, domestic gold rates have tracked the firm international trend, supported by currency movements and steady retail demand ahead of seasonal buying. While short-term traders booked profits after the recent run-up, the underlying tone remains constructive as long as geopolitical tensions persist and global investors maintain defensive allocations.
"Indian rupee remains within a broader rising structure despite intermittent pullbacks. Price is currently trading near 91.00 after respecting the rising trendline support around 90.50–90.60. The higher-low sequence remains technically intact on the hourly framework.The 90.40–90.50 region continues to act as structural pivot support," says Ponmudi adding that a sustained trade above this band keeps recovery potential open toward 91.30–91.60.
"A decisive break below 90.40 would extend corrective pressure toward 90.10; however, trend invalidation is not visible unless deeper structural supports are violated," he added.
Overall, the commodity complex is ending February on a tense note. Oil markets are reacting primarily to geopolitical risk and the possibility of supply disruption, with prices likely to remain sensitive to headlines in the days ahead. Gold, by contrast, is consolidating near highs, reflecting sustained demand for safety rather than speculative momentum alone. The trajectory for both assets in early March will depend heavily on whether diplomatic channels reopen and calm markets, or whether further escalation adds fresh fuel to an already volatile landscape.