NEW DELHI: As tensions grow in Indo-US relations following the imposition of 50% tariffs by the United States on Indian goods, three leading foreign policy and trade experts have cautioned against overreaction while underlining the need for strategic introspection and persistent engagement.
Speaking at a panel discussion hosted by The Indian Futures on Wednesday, former ambassadors and trade officials stressed that although the situation is serious, the India-US relationship remains fundamentally resilient.
Sujan Chinoy, former envoy to Japan, compared the current churn in the global order to “William Golding’s Lord of the Flies”, warning that a descent into chaos could ensue if rules and order are discarded. While acknowledging that President Donald Trump’s trade policies have rattled New Delhi, he maintained that the bilateral partnership “is not irreparably ruptured” and urged both countries to take “the right decisions in the next few months”.
Chinoy highlighted India’s trade surplus with the US and pointed to potential fallout for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), which account for 80% of Indian exports to the US.
He also warned that continued visa restrictions could harm India’s services sector and student mobility. On defence ties, however, he noted “substantial progress”, with several foundational agreements signed and more under negotiation.
Former Ambassador to Russia Pankaj Saran echoed Chinoy’s optimism but added that India must acknowledge the “asymmetry” in its relationship with a global power like the US. “There will always be frictions. We should focus on what we can control,” he said, advocating for a better understanding of key actors in Washington to avoid surprises.
He cautioned that unilateral decisions such as the tariff hike may not be easily reversed and called for India to “support the US agenda where possible”, such as on Ukraine diplomacy.
Shishir Priyadarshi, former WTO director, noted that the broader breakdown of trust in global trade rules underpins the current tension.
“What we’re seeing now has thrown the WTO out of the window,” he said, referring to the Trump administration’s protectionist turn. He argued that India cannot appear to give in, particularly on agriculture, dairy and fisheries, and must instead diversify export markets, support affected MSMEs, and continue dialogue. “Trust takes years to build but seconds to break,” he warned.
All three panellists agreed that while the short term may be turbulent, India must avoid reactionary moves and instead work toward recalibrating the relationship with patience and clarity.