Drama on the high seas continued to dominate geopolitics over the weekend as hopes of a reopening of the Hormuz Strait and an extended ceasefire in West Asia were belied. Even as Donald Trump indicated that his negotiation team was ready to head to Islamabad for a second round of talks, his administration announced it had seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship that had attempted to slip through the US blockade. Gunboat diplomacy came in the way of peace again, as Iran indicated it would not join the talks less than 48 hours before the end of the two-week ceasefire. However, Tehran kept the door to a negotiated solution open on Monday, with President Masoud Pezeshkian stressing the importance of diplomacy despite deep distrust of Washington’s motives.
To be effective, diplomacy needs clear objectives, and the US has not helped the cause by shifting goalposts. The reasons proffered for the US-Israel attacks, launched merely two days after the closure of “substantive” negotiations in Geneva, have ranged from pre-emptive action and degrading nuclear and missile capabilities to regime change, securing Iran’s resources, and responding to regional aggression. Behind that blur, the US and Israel have seemed insincere about a just resolution. In contrast, Trump summarily announced Israel’s ceasefire with Lebanon last week and stated that further strikes were “prohibited”. That was the condition Iran cited to briefly reopen Hormuz, before Trump insisted on continuing the naval blockade. To give diplomacy a chance, the US has to align its declared intent with action and not strengthen its economic chokehold on a nation it purportedly wants to negotiate with.
Trump’s actions are harming his own long-held goals of keeping inflation low at home and protecting the US dollar’s dominance abroad. His energy secretary indicated on Sunday that petrol prices would likely remain higher for longer than what the treasury secretary had suggested just days earlier. Meanwhile, even as it negotiates a currency swap with the US Treasury, the UAE central bank governor warned that his country might have to resort to more yuan-denominated trade—a move that would weaken the dollar’s global power.
It is now clearer what Iran wants. The crucial known unknown is the cue the commander of the most powerful armed forces will take to move genuinely towards de-escalation. Meanwhile, a nervous world holds its breath as the spectre of a longer war refuses to go away.