Though Tamil Nadu’s single-phase polling concluded peacefully on Thursday, the first phase of West Bengal’s two-phase Assembly election witnessed sporadic incidents of violence. One difference between the states was in the movement of people going out to vote. In West Bengal, a net exporter of workers to other states, those intent on casting their ballots had already made their way back home. But the transport system in Tamil Nadu came under severe strain at the last moment as lakhs headed out from Chennai to vote in their home constituencies, causing voters to spend hours on the road before exercising their franchise. However, voters’ enthusiasm was evident in both states. It was reflected in the 85.15 percent turnout in Tamil Nadu, one of the highest in the state’s history, despite localised boycotts in Vengaivayal, Nanguneri and a few other pockets in protest against the government’s alleged inaction on recent caste-related violence. In West Bengal, the first-phase turnout had touched a record 91.91 percent at the time of going to press.
As a multi-cornered contest, this Tamil Nadu election is more difficult for psephologists to analyse. The debut of Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam has infused fresh excitement into what was traditionally a straight fight between the two Dravidian heavyweights, the DMK and the AIADMK. Another key factor is the revival of the AIADMK-BJP alliance, further strengthened by the inclusion of the PMK, which has emerged as a significant force, particularly in the western and northern regions of the state. This has made the contest a tight three-way battle, with both the AIADMK-led alliance and TVK showing strength in the final stretch of the campaign.
Vijay’s entry has generated significant enthusiasm among young voters and sections of the urban electorate. However, whether his party can emerge as a credible alternative remains to be seen, despite bouncing back from the shadow of the Karur stampede last September. Though the incident had raised serious questions about his political future, his subsequent resurgence appears to have unsettled rivals.
On their part, the Secular Progressive Alliance led by the ruling DMK has projected the election as a fight between Delhi and Tamil Nadu. The temporary shelving of the Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Amendment Bill, the failure of the Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill and the delay in the immediate implementation of women’s reservation gave it ammunition. On the other hand, the NDA, headed here by the AIADMK, has focused on the state’s law and order situation and pitched for “double-engine” governance.
In West Bengal, with one more phase to go, the high turnout in the first phase underlines both the intensity of the contest and the continued centrality of electoral participation despite sporadic violence. All eyes are now on the next phase on April 29, whereas in Tamil Nadu they are on May 4—the day both electorates will know the results.