This was never the end of Donald Trump’s tariff wars, only an intermission. When the US Supreme Court struck down his global tariffs, imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, many assumed executive trade brinkmanship had hit a wall. The court ruled 6-3 that the president had overreached. Hours later, Trump proved them wrong. He shifted to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, announcing a 15 percent blanket tariff on imports—the provision’s maximum. The mechanism may be narrower and temporary, lasting 150 days without congressional approval. But the intent is clear. Tariffs are not policy footnotes in Trump’s playbook; they are leverage and spectacle, central to his strongman persona and grievance-driven domestic politics.
American GDP growth has slowed to 1.4 percent and the trade deficit has widened to roughly $1.2 trillion. Despite this, Trump has doubled down on the claim that tariffs will force manufacturing home and rebalance trade. More than $130 billion has already been collected under now-restricted emergency powers. The Supreme Court may have trimmed the legal pathway, but it has not altered the political instinct. This should be a wake-up call for India. New Delhi had agreed to tariffs of 18 percent on most goods under a bilateral understanding. A 10 percent US levy was manageable. A 15 percent blanket tariff erodes that relief and tightens margins across pharmaceuticals, engineering goods, textiles and auto components. More importantly, it reinforces a hard truth. Trade understandings with Washington can be abruptly repriced.
Under Trump, trade talks will remain prone to rude shocks. Countries that are convinced they have preferential access are learning that nothing is immune to sudden recalibration. Unpredictability is itself the leverage. India cannot negotiate in awe of the US market. Nor can it afford reflexive outrage or knee-jerk retaliation each time tariffs are weaponised. The response must be robust and strategic. Diversify export markets aggressively, deepen trade pacts, sharpen domestic competitiveness and build safeguards into any American deal against abrupt escalation. While there is no real substitute for the US market and Trump is a political reality, the next shock is not a possibility but a probability. In short, tariff shock is the new normal. India must prepare for a permanent Trump trade doctrine.