A day after the electorate delivered blockbuster mandates for five Assemblies, there was reasonable clarity on the leadership question only in Assam and Puducherry. Both cleared the incumbency test, with the NDA even cornering a three-fourths supermajority in Assam. Despite Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s polarising politics, it gave the BJP a third consecutive term and pushed the Congress to its worst-ever defeat in the state. Sarma is also the BJP leadership’s go-to person for managing the Northeast, so he can be expected to stay in power. In Puducherry, the NDA led by All India NR Congress retained power. With this, Chief Minister N Rangasamy, 76, will lead the state for a record fifth time.
Though Joseph Vijay’s chief ministership in Tamil Nadu is not in question, as his Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam is only 10 seats short of a simple majority, the unresolved question is who he will cross the line with. Negotiations are on to form a rainbow coalition with the Congress and others, putting him at the intersection of realpolitik and idealism. The trade-offs will be keenly watched.
In contrast, West Bengal has way too many contenders for the hot seat. On the top of the heap is giant-slayer Suvendu Adhikari, Leader of the Opposition who defeated Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee for the second time. For the BJP brass, Adhikari’s candidature would be difficult to ignore. But since the party keeps throwing up surprises in its leadership choices, the BJP’s state unit chief Samik Bhattacharya and vice-president Agnimitra Paul are also not out of the ring. Union Home Minister Amit Shah going to Kolkata to supervise the election of the legislature party’s head told its own story about the challenges in identifying the chief ministerial face.
In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF returned to power after a decade, securing close to three-fourths majority. The heavyweights leading the race to the top post are V D Satheesan, Ramesh Chennithala and K C Venugopal, though not necessarily in that order. The Congress high command must quickly announce its pick and not get sucked into the leadership vortex that has historically worn it down. Remember, the grand old party groomed both Sarma and Rangasamy, but later almost gift-wrapped them to the BJP-led NDA when it failed to accommodate their aspirations within its secular tent.