Negotiations within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) over seat sharing for the upcoming Puducherry Assembly election are entering a delicate phase, with the ruling partners — the All India N.R. Congress (AINRC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — working to accommodate the AIADMK and a few smaller regional players without upsetting the alliance’s existing power balance.
The challenge is structural as much as political. Puducherry has a small 30-member Assembly, leaving very limited room for accommodating multiple allies. Every constituency carries strategic weight, forcing the alliance leadership to strike a careful balance between rewarding established partners and expanding the coalition by bringing in additional players.
The seat-sharing arrangement between the AINRC and the BJP was largely finalised on Friday, with the two parties broadly agreeing to retain a 16:14 formula similar to the previous election. The understanding leaves limited space for accommodating additional allies, including the AIADMK.
At the centre of the negotiations is the attempt to retain the broad template that helped the NDA form the government in the 2021 election. The Rangasamy-led AINRC emerged as the largest party then, while the BJP secured a significant number of seats, enabling the alliance to cross the majority mark. The formula created a stable arrangement in which AINRC retained regional leadership while the BJP steadily expanded its organisational presence.
As the next election approaches, both parties appear keen to preserve that arrangement while making limited adjustments to accommodate allies.
Under the evolving formula, the AINRC is expected to retain the lion’s share of constituencies. The party’s bargaining position remains strong because Chief Minister N. Rangasamy continues to be the most recognisable political figure in the Union Territory. The AINRC leadership believes that its regional identity and Rangasamy’s personal credibility remain the alliance’s biggest electoral assets.
The BJP, meanwhile, is pushing for a slightly larger share of seats compared with the previous election. The party has steadily grown its footprint in the Union Territory over the past decade and now sees Puducherry as an important arena for consolidating its presence in southern politics. Contesting more seats would allow the BJP to convert its role in the central government and its organisational expansion into greater electoral representation in the Assembly.
However, accommodating the AIADMK and smaller regional parties complicates the arithmetic.
The AIADMK has historically maintained a presence in Puducherry politics due to its influence in neighbouring Tamil Nadu and its appeal among sections of Tamil voters in the Union Territory. But its electoral performance in the last Assembly election was modest, and its organisational network in Puducherry remains weaker than that of the AINRC and the BJP. As a result, its bargaining power in the current negotiations is limited.
Even so, the AIADMK retains strategic value for the NDA. The party’s brand recognition among Tamil voters and its ability to mobilise political support from across the border in Tamil Nadu can help broaden the alliance’s campaign appeal. For the NDA leadership, allocating a handful of constituencies to the AIADMK could serve as an alliance-management exercise rather than a purely electoral calculation.
In addition to the AIADMK, smaller regional outfits are also seeking representation in the alliance framework. Parties such as the Latchiya Jananayaga Katchi (LJK) and a few local groups have been part of discussions, further complicating the seat-sharing equation. With only 30 constituencies in the Assembly, accommodating each ally inevitably requires the larger partners to give up some space.
This is where the AINRC–BJP dynamic becomes crucial.
While the BJP is interested in expanding its seat share, the AINRC is equally keen to preserve its dominant position in the alliance. For Rangasamy, contesting the largest number of constituencies is important not only for maintaining the party’s identity but also for ensuring that the leadership of the government remains firmly in regional hands.
The resulting negotiations have therefore focused on a three-layered arrangement within the NDA.
The AINRC is likely to contest the largest block of seats as the principal regional party and the face of the government. The BJP would remain the second pillar of the alliance, contesting a substantial number of constituencies and seeking incremental expansion compared with the last election. The remaining seats would be distributed among smaller partners such as the AIADMK and other regional outfits.
"Such a formula allows the NDA to maintain internal stability while still projecting the image of a broad coalition," says a AINRC insider, adding that the alliance leadership is aware that seat-sharing negotiations cannot drag on indefinitely.
At the same time, the opposition alliance led by the Congress and the DMK is also working to finalise its electoral arrangement, creating pressure on the ruling coalition to present a united front before campaigning gathers momentum.
For the BJP, the Puducherry election carries significance beyond the Union Territory’s small electoral map. Expanding its presence in Puducherry fits into the party’s broader strategy of strengthening its political footprint across southern India. For the AINRC, the priority is to defend its regional dominance and ensure that Rangasamy’s leadership remains central to the NDA’s campaign narrative.
The final seat-sharing formula, whenever it is announced, will therefore reveal more than just the distribution of constituencies. It will signal how the NDA intends to balance regional leadership with national ambition in one of India’s smallest but politically complex electoral arenas.
In a 30-seat Assembly, the margins are narrow and alliances matter more than arithmetic. The way the AINRC and the BJP carve out space for allies like the AIADMK could well determine whether the NDA enters the election as a cohesive coalition — or a partnership negotiating its internal equations even as the campaign unfolds.