The electoral battle for Assam reaches its decisive moment after a fiercely contested campaign shaped by identity politics, welfare delivery and regional aspirations.
As per early trends, the ruling BJP-led NDA has secured a significant lead, hinting at a hat-trick victory in the state. While the Congress-led alliance trails behind at a snail's pace currently, many Opposition leaders expect a comeback.
Counting of votes from 126 assembly constituencies is underway across 40 centres under tight security, with over 700 candidates in the fray. Polling on April 9 saw a robust turnout of 85.96%, underscoring high stakes in a state where alliances and local dynamics remain pivotal.
Most exit polls indicated a clear edge for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, projecting a third straight term with 88–100 seats in the 126-member Assembly, comfortably above the majority mark.
The verdict will also seal the political fate of key figures, including CM Himanta Biswa Sarma, Congress state chief Gaurav Gogoi and AIUDF leader Badruddin Ajmal, among others.
Assam Congress president Gaurav Gogoi was trailing behind his BJP rival Hitendranath Goswami by 4,132 votes in Jorhat Assembly constituency, EC officials said on Monday.
The Lok Sabha MP from Jorhat had polled 9,875 votes so far, while his opponent and sitting MLA secured 14,007 votes, they said.
Gogoi is making his electoral debut in Assembly polls, while Goswami, a five-time MLA who has represented the constituency thrice as an AGP leader and twice as a BJP legislator, is seeking a third consecutive term.
Reacting to the trends, he said, "Our people, observers have been deputed in our Dispur office, and they will monitor. I have received an inquiry from our representatives about whether it is necessary to halt counting or any recounting. I am happy with the initiatives of the Congress party. After some time, we will be able to get the trend."
The ruling NDA was leading in 87 seats in Assam while the Congress was ahead in 21 constituencies, according to the Election Commission.
The EC has released trends for 114 of the 126 constituencies in the state, with the BJP leading in 71 while its alliance partners, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the Bodoland Peoples' Front (BPF) ahead in seven and nine seats, respectively.
The Congress was leading in 21 seats, while its ally, the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and Raijor Dal in one seat each, according to the EC.
The AIUDF was also leading in two seats, the CPI(M) and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha in one constituency each.
The NDA was leading in 88 constituencies, while the Opposition alliance was leading in only 23. The required majority to form a government is 64.
Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and state Congress president Gaurav Gogoi were leading in Jalukbari and Jorhat Assembly constituencies, respectively, according to early trends shown by television channels.
Assam Jatiya Parishad president Lurinjyoti Gogoi was also ahead in Khowang.
Former senior Congress leaders Pradyut Bordoloi and Bhupen Borah, who joined the BJP ahead of the polls, were leading in Dispur and Bihpuria constituencies, respectively.
The ruling BJP was leading in 17 constituencies, while the Congress was ahead in eight, as per the trends.
The Election Commission is yet to release official figures.
BJP candidate from Dispur constituency, Pradyut Bordoloi, said, "Not just my constituency, I have been receiving news from the entire state. The wind is in favour of BJP and we are going to form government for the third consecutive term."
Raijor Dal Chief Akhil Gogoi said, "The counting of postal ballots is underway, and I am confident that I will win from the very first round ... All the candidates contesting against me will receive fewer votes than what I will get."
He said that the people are unhappy with the BJP and "that this time the opposition alliance will win more than 70 seats, and we will form the government."
The BJP and its alliance partners were leading in 31 seats in Assam, as per early trends. The Congress-led alliance has lost momentum, with a lead in only five seats. The AIUDF has gained upper hand in two seats.
LoP and Congress candidate from Nazira assembly, Debabrata Saikia, said that the BJP had been promising good days in Assam since 2014, "but there are no good days."
"The days of the Assamese people have become even worse now. Assamese identity, Assamese culture, Assamese language are under threat," he said, adding that these may be why people might give the Opposition a chance to serve them.
Meanwhile, Raijor Dal president and candidate from Sivasagar constituency, Akhil Gogoi, said he hoped that the Opposition parties will form the government this time.
"With 70-plus seats, we will form the government, and we will own the game," he said.
BJP and its alliance partners expressed confidence that they will form government for the third time.
Bijoy Kumar Gupta, BJP candidate from Guwahati Central assembly constituency, said the BJP is confident that "all its candidates will win by a very good margin."
AGP candidate from Nowboicha constituency, Basanta Das, said, "There is 100% chance that we are going to win and we will win every time."
The counting of votes for 126 assembly constituencies in Assam began on Monday to decide whether the ruling NDA retains power for the third successive term or the Congress-led opposition alliance wrests it.
The electoral fate of 722 candidates will be decided at 40 centres, where counting began across all 35 districts at 8 am.
Most of the districts have a single centre comprising all constituencies in each district, barring Nagaon, which has three centres, and Kokrajhar, Tinsukia and Jorhat, which have two centres each.
The counting of the postal ballot will be taken up initially.
Security has been beefed up with 25 companies of central armed police forces (CAPFs) deployed to guard the strongrooms at the counting centres.
Polling in all 126 assembly constituencies in the state was held in a single phase on April 9 with a record 85.96 per cent of the over 2.5 crore voters having exercised their franchise.
Most exit polls indicate a clear edge for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, projecting a third straight term with 88–100 seats in the 126-member Assembly, comfortably above the majority mark. In contrast, the Congress-led opposition alliance is expected to trail significantly, with projections placing it between 24 and 36 seats.
Axis My India predicted a sweep for the BJP, forecasting 88-100 seats for the BJP and its allies and 24-36 seats for the Congress and its partners. People's Pulse predicted that the NDA would get 68-72 seats in Assam while the Congress plus would secure in the range of 22-26 seats.
Matrize said the NDA is likely to get between 85-95 seats and the Congress and its allies 25-32. Pollster JVC projected that the BJP plus would get 88-101 seats and the Congress and its allies 23-33 seats.
While Kamakhya Analytics predicted 85-95 seats for the BJP and its allies and 26-39 seats for the Congress and its allies, People's Insight forecast 88-96 seats for the NDA and 30-34 for the Congress in Assam. Poll Diary gave 86-101 seats to the NDA and 15-26 for the Congress plus. The Assam assembly has 126 seats with the magic mark being 64.
The stage is set for a decisive verdict in Assam, with counting of votes on Monday poised to determine whether the BJP-led NDA retains power for a third term or if the opposition alliance led by the Indian National Congress can return to office. The contest follows weeks of intense campaigning centred on identity politics, welfare delivery and regional aspirations.
Electronic voting machines from 126 assembly constituencies, carrying the electoral fortunes of 722 candidates, will be opened at 40 counting centres across 35 districts amid stringent security arrangements. Twenty-five companies of Central Armed Police Forces have been deployed to guard counting venues and strongrooms, with additional state police and specialised units on standby to maintain order.
Polling, held on April 9, recorded a high turnout of 85.96 per cent among over 2.5 crore eligible voters, reflecting strong participation in a politically significant election. The BJP fielded 90 candidates, while the Congress has the highest number at 99. Allies and rivals add further complexity, with the AIUDF contesting 30 seats, Asom Gana Parishad 26 and Bodo Peoples’ Front 11.
Smaller parties and 258 Independents are also in the fray, making the electoral arithmetic more fluid. Among prominent candidates are Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, Congress state president Gaurav Gogoi, opposition leader Debabrata Saikia, AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal and Raijor Dal leader Akhil Gogoi.
In the outgoing assembly, the BJP held 64 seats, with its allies adding to the NDA’s tally, while the Congress-led opposition remained significantly behind. Monday’s results will reveal whether the incumbent alliance consolidates its dominance or if the opposition reshapes Assam’s political landscape.