THRISSUR: The stakes are high as the cultural capital prepares to vote in the Assembly elections on Monday as no previous elections have left parties, candidates and campaign managers as clueless about voter mood as this one has.
In the previous elections, though the delimitation had surprised the electorate and political parties to some extent before the elections, this time the unexpected rise of BJP and its grand alliance NDA has really baffled the pollsters and political pundits.
The LDF which had won 11 out of the 14 seats in the 2006 Assembly elections in what could be termed as the opposite of the verdict of the 2001 Assembly elections in which it had won only two of the 14 seats, has retained its upper hand in 2011 elections by winning seven out of 13 constituencies in Thrissur.
When the district is preparing to cast its franchise on Monday, the LDF still enjoys a slight edge over its nearest rival UDF as the UDF will have to not only fight anti-incumbency mood but also the factional feud in the Congress, which has taken its toll on the electoral fortunes of the Congress in recent times.
The LDF has almost made certain its victory in Puthukkad and Kaipamangalam constituencies and the UDF in Irinjalakuda constituency even before the elections. The UDF has confidence in retaining Wadakkancherry seat apart from wresting the Kunnamkulam seat from the CPM. Besides, they also hope for a photo finish in Thrissur constituency, despite the constituency being one of the strongholds of the Congress down the decades.
On the other hand, the LDF sources revealed that they are facing a tight fight in Chelakkara and Kunnamkulam seats, while it is confident of wresting the Manalur seat from the Congress. In Ollur, Thrissur, and Wadakkancherry seats, there would be a photo finish and the result would depend on the performance of NDA candidates. Though the LDF candidate is facing a tough fight from Muslim League in Guruvayur constituency, they are hopeful of retaining the seat by a slender margin.
If the Congress is free from its factional feud, it can raise the electoral prospects of the UDF as the votes to be secured by NDA candidates will be decisive in some seats. The Congress faces the ire of its rank and file in Puthukkad, Thrissur and Wadakkancherry constituencies.
In Kodungallur, though the NDA candidate is likely to secure a significant chunk of votes, the LDF thinks that the performance of the BJP would turn things in its favour. In short, if the BJP does not play spoilsport, the LDF can pocket up to nine out of 13 constituencies in Thrissur.