KOCHI: Several constituencies expected to witness nail-biting contests with wafer-thin margins this election delivered eye-catching surprises, with candidates securing emphatic five-digit margins.
Among the most striking examples is IUML leader Najeeb Kanthapuram’s win in Perinthalmanna by 32,431 votes — a massive leap from his 2021 victory margin of a mere 38 votes. IUML’s A K M Ashraf from Manjeshwar expanded his margin from 745 to an impressive 29,252 votes, defeating BJP’s K Surendran yet again.
According to political analysts, while individual charisma and campaign strategies played a role, the results must also be viewed in the context of a strong “political tsunami” in favour of Congress-led UDF.
“Overall, the results reflect a growing dissatisfaction among the people of Kerala with the ruling LDF, with minority consolidation further amplifying the impact,” said J Prabash, political commentator.
“It appears that even sections of core party supporters voted in dissent. Multiple factors contributed to this shift, including a desire for political correction, push for a new regime, and concerns over the Left’s perceived tilt towards soft Hindutva.”
Constituencies such as Kuttiady and Tanur, which had earlier witnessed wafer-thin margins—with IUML losing by just 333 and 985 votes, respectively—saw a dramatic turnaround, as the party registered comfortable victories.
“There has always been an assessment that in close contests vote shares remain largely static. But elections are ultimately a reflection of a particular time, place, and context, and voters respond to that reality. This time, UDF, especially IUML, appears to have benefited from minority considerations,” Prabash added.
In contrast many candidates—mostly LDF leaders like Pinarayi Vijayan (Dharmadam) and M Vijin (Kalliassery) —who recorded massive leads in 2021 saw their margins shrink. Girish Kumar R, a professor with Kerala University, said LDF’s setback is linked to public concerns over protecting the state’s secular fabric.
“During the previous election, people were anxious about the pandemic and disaster management and they preferred a strong leader to guide them, which favoured the second Pinarayi Vijayan government. This time, there was concern over whether secular values would be upheld, and voters responded accordingly,” he said, adding that while the LDF this time focused its campaign discourse on communalism, voters delivered their response through the ballot.