Bengal records a voter turnout of about 92 percent  Photo/ IANS
West Bengal Elections

Bengal’s high voter turnout: Who stands to gain?

The high turnout, barring sporadic violence in several districts, suggests that voters in West Bengal cast their ballots undeterred.

Subhendu Maiti

KOLKATA: West Bengal recorded a massive voter turnout of around 92 per cent on Thursday in the first phase of polling across 152 of its 294 Assembly constituencies, with unprecedented security deployment of 2,407 companies of central forces and 40,000 state police personnel in what is traditionally one of the country’s most violence-prone states during elections.

The high turnout, barring sporadic violence in several districts, suggests that voters in West Bengal cast their ballots undeterred.

In the 2021 Assembly elections, West Bengal recorded a voter turnout of around 83 per cent across eight phases. This time, the exceptionally high turnout in the first phase—likely to cross 95 per cent once the Election Commission of India releases the final tally—could pose a challenge to the ruling Trinamool Congress led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. The surge comes against the backdrop of several adverse factors, including the deletion of around 91 lakh voters from the rolls following the SIR, concerns over infiltration, and a series of controversies such as the ‘cash-for-jobs’ scam that led to the cancellation of appointments of 26,000 teachers and non-teaching staff in state-run schools, the brutal rape and murder of a woman doctor at R G Kar Hospital, and allegations of lawlessness.

According to the ECI, Cooch Behar and Birbhum districts have recoded 92 percent votes till 5 pm while Jalpaiguri, Malda, Murshidabad and West Midnapore showed around 91 percent turnout on an average.

Expressing pleasure with the massive turnout in the ongoing first phase of assembly elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday afternoon congratulated the people of the state, and called the vote figures so far indicative of an “overwhelming mandate for change”.

Addressing a poll rally in Krishnanagar in Nadia district, Prime Minister asserted that violence during the Assembly polls remained at a minimum in 50 years.

"Violence was kept at a minimum in the last 50 years of poll history in Bengal. The information I have received so far makes me certain that this is going to be a mandate for a change.”

The saffron camp had ended up with 77 seats in 2021 despite Modi and Amit Shah’s much-publicised campaigns claiming, ‘Aab ki bar 200 paar.’

A Bengal BJP leader who was in the party’s Salt Lake ‘war room’ on elections today said that this time the situation is highly favourable for his party to form the government. The Union Home Minister Amit Shah also visited the ‘war room’ this afternoon.

 The Trinamool Congress supremo on the other hand countered Modi saying, “We have already reached the doorstep of victory because I can read the mind of people. Massive turnout in today’s elections indicates that we have won.”

While addressing a poll rally at Bowbazar in kolkata she said, “People have cast votes in such massive number because they know it’s a fight to protect their rights.”

Prof. Abdul Matin of Jadavpur University, said, “The first phase polls has witnessed unprecedented voter turnout. Samserganj, Raghunathganj, Lalgola and Bhagawangola constituencies in Murshidabad district have crossed 95 percent voter turnout. In normal circumstances, the super high voter turnout generally goes against the incumbent government but the case of Bengal this time is very different due to the SIR. The arbitrary and opaque SIR exercise by the ECI led to the deletion of lakhs of ‘genuine’ voters and adversely affected Muslim electorates in Murshidabad, Malda and North Dinajpur.”

“This SIR process has also created a huge panic and confusion among the ordinary voters that non-casting of vote might lead to the cancellation of their voting rights. The TMC has also generated huge fear among the Muslim voters regarding SIR.  Even the local TMC leaders in the panchayat areas have mobilised Bengali migrant workers to return home and cast their votes."

Generally, these votes are mostly in favour of TMC not out of choice but fear of losing citizenship,” Prof Matin felt.

“However, constituencies in Cooch Behar, Alipurduar, Darjeeling, Dakshin Dinajpur and Bankura districts, a high voter turnout might go against the incumbent Trinamool congress, which would eventually help BJP despite its organisational weakness. In Muslim concentrated constituencies there is a possibility of revival of Congress and the Left-ISF alliance,” according to Matin.  

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