Extreme heat has emerged as one of the biggest threats to South Asia’s employment landscape with a latest World Bank report suggesting that soaring temperature wipes out about 31 million full-time jobs every year across the region while thwarting creation of more over the coming decades. In the report, ‘A Livable Future: Protecting Jobs and Growth from Extreme Heat in South Asia’s Cities,’ the World Bank says South Asia must generate employment for nearly 280 million additional working-age people by 2050 and most of them in cities. For, rising temperatures are making outdoor work increasingly unsafe, depressing labour productivity, reducing earnings and discouraging investment needed to create new jobs.
The World Bank says that Indian cities are slated to lose job-equivalent working hours (JELs) over the next few decades as heat-related work hour loss will mount drastically. By 2030, New Delhi is projected to lose full-time equivalent jobs from 2.66 lakh in 2030 to 6.29 lakh by 2080. Kolkata could lose the equivalent of 8.33 lakh jobs by 2080 due to working hours lost to excessive heat, up from 3.6 lakh in 2030. Mumbai is projected to lose the equivalent of 2.7 lakh jobs by 2080, up from 2.04 lakh in 2030, while Chennai’s losses are expected to nearly double from 1.41 lakh to 2.69 lakh over the same period.
Similarly, Ahmedabad and Surat are estimated to lose 1.48 lakh and 1.37 lakh jobs respectively by 2080. Varanasi, though recording the lowest absolute losses, is projected to see its figures increase from 51,000 in 2030 to 1.25 lakh by 2080. Among other South Asian cities analysed, Dhaka is expected to be the worst affected, with job-equivalent losses rising from 4.65 lakh in 2030 to 16.5 lakh by 2080.
The estimates are based on a moderate-emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5) and translate lost working hours caused by unsafe heat exposure into the equivalent number of full-time jobs. The JEL is not actual employment losses but converts lost work hours due to heat exposure into the number of full-time jobs those hours would represent, providing a measure of the economic impact of rising temperatures.
India’s jobs engine under pressure
India is expected to account for a substantial share of South Asia’s expanding workforce over the next quarter century. However, the World Bank report warns that the country’s employment will face a heat challenge. It cites research showing that extreme heat is already reducing labour productivity across sectors ranging from agriculture and construction to street vending and manufacturing. It cited that 90% of New Delhi street vendors reduced working hours due to heat in summer 2025.
It cited one study which revealed rice harvesting productivity fell by around 5% for every degree Celsius increase above the safe Wet Bulb Globe Temperature threshold, while outdoor workers experienced substantially higher productivity losses under prolonged heat exposure. India has already warmed by 1.15 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Between May 2024 and May 2025, the country recorded 62 days when temperatures exceeded the historical 90th percentile, while several regions witnessed temperatures above 45 degree C and heatwaves lasting over two weeks. Urbanisation is compounding the problem. Expanding concrete landscapes and shrinking green spaces are creating intense urban heat islands, with dense neighbourhoods remaining more than 10 degree C hotter than surrounding rural areas even at night. The Heat Watch Surat initiative found temperature variations of 4.8 degree C to 7.5 degree C within different parts of the city depending on vegetation and built-up density, highlighting the role of urban planning in mitigating heat exposure.
Infrastructure feeling the heat
India’s infrastructure is already beginning to buckle under rising temperatures, the report revealed. Electricity demand has surged as households increasingly rely on cooling. Air-conditioner sales rose by an estimated 34% between 2023 and 2024, while electricity demand touched a record 156 billion units in May 2024, logging a 15% jump over the corresponding month in the previous year. Yet the same temperatures driving demand are also weakening the power system. When temperatures cross 40 degree C, outages become 20%-50% more frequent and last 15%-60% longer, according to the report. Transport infrastructure is facing similar stress. The World Bank pointed to heat damage on the Mumbai-Nagpur Expressway caused by unsuitable asphalt specifications. It also warned that Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International Airport could experience temperatures approaching 50 degree C for multiple days every year by 2030, affecting aircraft lift, engine performance and passenger as well as cargo carrying capacity. Public transport services in cities such as Kolkata have already been disrupted as heat-related illnesses among drivers and declining passenger demand force operational changes.
Healthcare infrastructure remains poorly prepared. A survey of 623 healthcare facilities in India found 44% had no heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems, while only 7% had central air-conditioning, exposing vulnerable patients to dangerous indoor temperatures during heatwaves.
Crisis spanning South Asia
The report says the challenge extends well beyond India. South Asia has already warmed by an average of 1.26 degree C above pre-industrial levels, with Bhutan, Bangladesh and Nepal recording even higher increases. Climate models indicate the Himalayan region will experience the fastest warming this century, while coastal cities will become increasingly hot and humid.
By 2070, around 520 million people across the region are expected to face at least one month of dangerous heat each year which is four times the number exposed today. The report argues that the real human toll is likely much higher than official statistics suggest because heat-related deaths are often recorded as cardiac or renal failure. Working-hour losses are projected to rise sharply across South Asia by 2080. Annual productivity losses could reach 7.4% in Dhaka, 6.3% in Patna, 4.4% in Chattogram, 3.7% in Colombo, 2.9% in Jaipur and 0.7% in Kathmandu. The economic consequences are also equally stark. Without adaptation, the World Bank estimates South Asia’s GDP could be nearly 7% smaller by 2050, representing the largest projected loss among developing regions. Informal workers are expected to bear the greatest burden, with incomes falling by around 40% during severe heatwaves as working hours decline and expenditure on water, cooling and healthcare rises.