True to form, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has inaugurated his second term in office, catching most analysts by surprise. It is not only the induction of Amit Shah in the cabinet and his installation as virtual number two that has given the Central government a new look, it is the large number of ‘colleagues’ dropped that has set tied tongues wagging again. Retirements, voluntary or enforced, on health grounds of Arun Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj were almost expected but none had any clue about S Jaishankar’s lateral entry as External Affairs Minister with cabinet rank, leapfrogging ahead of many BJP veterans. But we digress. It’s not personal fortunes, ‘promotions’ and ‘demotions’ that should be read as straws in the wind to speculate about things in store for us in days ahead. What is of far greater significance in politics and social life of India under Modi 2.0 is the ‘beginnings and ends’ that are clearly discernible.
First the ends. The Lok Sabha elections 2019 have dealt a death blow to the idea of identity politics based on caste. The disastrous unravelling of the Mahagathbandhan forged with much fanfare between Mayawati and Akhilesh clearly shows that opportunistic coalitions have no future in the state that sends the largest number of MPs to Parliament. The myth of Dalit, Yadav and Muslim vote bank has finally been exploded. This is not to suggest that the days of identity politics are over. Accusations hurled by opponents that the NDA-NaMo victory is the result of religious polarisation will continue to resonate for months. What one should pause to ponder is whether the fanatical secularists have themselves not contributed to this dangerous trend. The Congress president transformed like chameleon into a janeudhari Hindu and Digvijay Singh tried to outdo even the most orthodox believer in parikrama, puja-archana-havan etc. The more Mamata Didi flexed her muscles in a show of Trinamool Dadagiri denying what is euphemistically described as the ‘level playing field’ to BJP in West Bengal, the more the ‘majority’ community felt slighted. In the end, BJP didn’t have to exert to rally its hardcore constituents raising slogans about Ram Temple at Ayodhya. Mamata made sure that an impression was created that ‘Hinduism’ is threatened at least in Bengal.
Dynastic ambitions of Lalu Yadav’s family faded fast in Bihar and one can safely predict that the age of automatic dynastic succession is over. Not that poor Tejashwi didn’t try hard enough but the scion of the Yadav clan was constantly compared to the firebrand student leader Kanhaiya Kumar and came a cropper. Kanhaiya, in turn, bit the dust despite having heavyweights like Javed Saheb support his candidature along with a star cast, including Swara Bhaskar, Jignesh Mevani and Co. The paper tiger unleashed with a roar retired hurt with a mew. The Left or what remained of its rump has been pulverised humiliatingly. It would only be a mentally challenged person who can sustain the belief that Marxists and Socialists of assorted hues can some time in distant future rise like the Phoenix to present an ‘alternative’ to rightist revivalist forces of aggressive Hindu Nationalism with dark overtones of ‘Communal Fascism’.
The majority of voters, specially the young, just don’t care about such scary labelling. They have tried various regional parties and other charismatic leaders, and have suffered innumerable heartbreaks. They have walked into what the liberal democrats call (not without reason) a deadly trap with their eyes fully open. They are willing to take one more chance with Modi and ‘resurgent’ BJP. The ‘masses’ can’t be lured back into the fold by appeals to resurrect the abstract Nehruvian Idea of India. In any case, Sonia and RaGa’s Congress has little to do with the ideals and values of the party that fought for the freedom of India from colonial yoke. The fiefdom has constantly shrunk, and now that the inheritor has been ousted from Amethi, one hopes, the rest is silence.
Modi has led the BJP to an unprecedented victory defying anti-incumbency and hostile foreign media. He and his party have been accused of abusing money power, official machinery and subverting the independence of constitutional authorities and institutions. The chant has been growing stronger: “This is the End my friend!” Ironically, the general mood in the country is upbeat. There are not many who believe that Modi personifies the worst in the country. The more he is maligned the larger his stature grows. Whether it’s dealing with Pakistan or petulant neighbours, he appears the best bet. Firmly in the saddle for another five-year ride, what is the Sheriff going to do? Will he tame the lawless lynch mob? Will he ensure that the abjectly poor get what’s due to them? Will developmental priorities relegate all else to the margins? Will the ‘narrative’ change? Will we witness a new beginning? Too early to tell.
Pushpesh Pant
Former professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University
pushpeshpant@gmail.com