NEW DELHI: The almost certain victory of the Communist-Maoist alliance in Nepal’s historic elections is likely to deal a blow to India’s waning influence in the former kingdom. Following the abolition of monarchy on December 24, 2007, Nepal has had 10 prime ministers in as many years. New Delhi’s siding with the Madhesis in the foothills bordering India was seen as Indian interference in Nepal’s internal politics, and the five month long blockade of the Indo-Nepal border by the Madhesis reinforced this notion.
“While India has no choice but to work with whoever comes to power in Nepal, it has been uncomfortable with Left governments anywhere in our neighbourhood,” says Nihar Ranjan Nayak, a researcher with the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
“But there will be uncomfortable situations, since the Left alliance in Nepal has been traditionally inclined towards China. So while allotting projects, Chinese companies will get preference in different sectors of Nepal traditionally dominated by Indian firms. China will find it easy to include Nepal in its Belt and Road Initiative, which India opposes because a part of it passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.”
Yubaraj Ghimire, political analyst and Editor of Deshsanchar.com, a Nepali news website, concurs. “Chinese influence in Nepal is almost at par with India now, and they are coming into the water sector.”