NEW DELHI: After four consecutive years of normal and above-normal rains during the monsoon season, India is likely to see a deficit in rainfall in 2023 with a 20% chance of drought, private weather forecasting agency Skymet said on Monday.
“Skymet expects the upcoming monsoon to be ‘below normal’ to the tune of 94% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long period average of 868.6 mm for the four-month long period from June to September,” it said. Releasing the monsoon forecast for 2023, the weather agency said there is a 40% chance of the upcoming season being ‘below normal’, 25% chance of it being ‘normal’, 15% chance of ‘above normal’ and zero chance of excess rains.
In its earlier forecast in January, it had predicted the 2023 monsoon to be sub-par — an observation it has reiterated. The private forecaster expects the northern and central parts of the country to experience a rain deficit with Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra witnessing inadequate rains during the core monsoon months of July and August.
Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and UP — the agricultural bowl of north India — are likely to observe less than normal rains during the second half of the season, it predicted. Skymet MD Jatin Singh said the return of El Nino — which is associated with heat and dryness in the Asian region — could presage a weaker monsoon this year. However, the weather agency noted that the Indian Ocean Dipole (a climate condition) could steer monsoon and negate the ill effects of El Nino when sufficiently strong.