NEW DELHI: The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) have concurred that the upcoming winter will be warmer than normal and also indicate a bountiful monsoon next year due to the ongoing El Niño, which is expected to last at least until April 2024.
El Niño, or Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring climatic event synonymous with a poor southwest monsoon in India. It will further spike in temperature both on land and in the ocean. Unlike the below-normal monsoon this year, the monsoon in 2024 is likely to be normal and above normal, as stated by Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director-General of Meteorology at IMD. This year, India received only around 94% of its normal average rainfall, which was also uneven and impacted agricultural activities.
El Niño is related to the warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, especially near Peru, South America. However, it has been observed that human-induced climate change has increased its frequency. Due to El Niño, the sea surface temperature varied between 0.5°C to 1.5°C during May to September this year. El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years and typically lasts nine to 12 months. It is connected to poor monsoons in India and drought-like conditions in Australia.
Peak in Nov-Jan
A recent analysis by WMO shows that the El Niño event is likely to peak in November-January 2024, with its impact reducing in April 2024. This will make way for good annual southwest monsoon winds to reach the Indian peninsula. According to WMO, there is a 90% likelihood that El Niño will persist throughout the upcoming northern hemisphere winter and southern hemisphere summer.