NEW DELHI: With the Bihar Assembly elections just around the corner, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party entry into the political landscape has transformed what was a predictable bipolar contest into a multi-player showdown. For the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP and JD(U), this election is not just about retaining power, it’s about setting the tone for the 2029 general elections.
Top BJP strategists view Bihar as a critical testing ground for their national ambitions. “This is a deciding election for 2029,” said a senior BJP leader, calling it pivotal for advancing the BJP’s ‘Viksit Bharat 2047’ vision.
With its electoral machine in full gear, the NDA is banking on both central schemes and last-minute welfare pushes to secure a renewed mandate. But the political terrain has grown far more complex.
Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, often hailed as a master of political reinvention, now faces a direct challenge not just from a resurgent Opposition but from his own electoral fatigue. His leadership, marked by frequent ideological shifts, is under scrutiny. A victory would certainly cement his legacy and a defeat could weaken his party’s standing within the NDA.
The BJP has deeper stakes. A strong performance would reinforce its dominance across eastern India and provide momentum for upcoming battles in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu in 2026. But a poor showing could deal a psychological blow and embolden the Opposition.
The entry of Prashant Kishor, one of India’s most successful election strategists, adds a layer of unpredictability. His Jan Suraaj Party has created political ripples by challenging traditional caste loyalties and appealing to youth and first-time voters through grassroots outreach.
While it’s unclear whether his party can win big, even a modest vote share could upend calculations in close constituencies, making him a potential kingmaker in the Assembly.
The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), under Tejashwi Yadav, senses an opportunity to reclaim lost ground. A win in Bihar would not only revive the RJD’s fortunes but also provide a morale boost to the larger anti-BJP Opposition nationwide.
Analysts believe a defeat for the NDA in Bihar could trigger a domino effect, reshaping alliances and narratives leading into 2029.
Caste dynamics, as always in Bihar, remain crucial. Despite the NDA’s efforts to pivot toward development politics, identity equations continue to influence voter behaviour. Welfare schemes targeting women, youth, and backward classes may help consolidate the NDA’s base—but whether that’s enough remains to be seen.
What makes this election uniquely volatile is the convergence of legacy leaders, rising challengers, and national ambitions—all playing out in one of India’s most politically significant states.
As Bihar prepares for the polls, one thing is clear: the outcome won’t just decide who governs Patna—it could recalibrate the course of Indian politics itself.