NEW DELHI: Nisha Biswal is a seasoned American diplomat and strategic thinker who served as Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs from 2013 to 2017, playing a pivotal role in shaping the modern US–India partnership. During her tenure, bilateral ties expanded significantly, including the launch of the annual US.–India Strategic and Commercial Dialogue and deeper cooperation across defense, energy and trade.
With long experience at the intersection of diplomacy, economics and geopolitics, Biswal brings a nuanced perspective to current global realignments.
In this interview with Jayanth Jacob, she reflects on the contours of the emerging India–US. trade understanding, the tariff diplomacy under President Trump, and the prospects for durable strategic cooperation between India and the US amid shifting global power equations.
After a fraught phase marked by 50 per cent tariffs, what compromise or strategic recalculation finally broke the logjam, leading President Trump to announce a trade deal?
“Most of the negotiations had been completed for some time. There was a feeling that the deal would not be finalised until the two leaders spoke. The phone call on February second, initiated by President Trump, enabled the two leaders to find wins: India got removal of the 25% energy tariff and a reciprocal rate of 18%, which was better than other Asian peers, without compromising on its agriculture and dairy sectors; The US got removal of Indian tariffs on a broad cross section of sectors, a commitment to cut Russian energy imports and commitments to buy US energy, technology and defense products. The timing can perhaps be attributed to the arrival of Amb Gor to New Delhi, but also the announcement of an EU-India FTA.
Even though the final text of the deal some distance away, does this signal an economic reset in India–US relations, or is it merely a tactical arrangement amid an unpredictable US tariff regime?
It’s more of a tactical stabiliser than a full reset. The deal brings the relationship back from a period of tariff escalation, but the real reset will come only if both sides translate this temporary alignment into durable progress on supply chains, technology, and services.
How do both countries achieve durable progress on supply chains, considering these ideas have been on the table for some time now?
The interim trade agreement between the U.S. and India removes an irritant in the strategic partnership by removing the 25% energy tariff and reducing the reciprocal tariff to 18%, among the lowest in Asia. At the same time, it opens the door to cooperation on critical supply chains. The presence of Minister Jaishankar at the Critical Minerals Summit this week was an opportunity for the two countries to work together for solutions to reduce Chinese dominance of critical minerals and rare earth materials. The summit discussed ways to prevent market manipulation through trade measures that create price stability, stockpiles that support demand stability and other measures. Furthermore, India’s integration into trade and economic relations with the U.S., EU, UK, Canada, and Australia further strengthens supply chains that are routed through like-minded and trusted networks.
Given the Trump administration’s recent history of sudden tariff shifts, how can India assess the durability of this deal as a foundation for long-term economic cooperation?
Durability won’t come from the document alone. It will depend on how deeply India and the US integrate in critical areas like energy, technology, and defence. The more strategic the cooperation becomes, the harder it will be for either side to revert to disruptive tariff swings.
The US President has said India would stop buying Russian oil, while New Delhi has made no public commitment. Is it realistic for Washington to expect India to disengage from Russian energy, given their long-standing strategic ties?
A rapid disengagement from Russian energy is unrealistic. India’s priority is energy security at affordable prices, and Russian barrels still meet that test. India will diversify over time if alternatives are competitive, but it won’t make absolute commitments that limit its strategic flexibility.”
Despite China importing more oil from Russia, there was no punitive sanction on Beijing. How do you see the China-US ties under Trump and what does it mean for Quad, alternative supply chain, etc.?
I believe the U.S. is seeking to stabilize its relationship with China. The President's planned trip to China in the spring will likely focus on some steps to normalise trade with China in non-critical sectors, including agriculture. However, there are fundamental differences between the U.S. and China on advanced technology, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals, etc., which will remain areas of contention. Ultimately, the movement towards derisking from China-based supply chains will continue as more nations take steps to prevent Chinese overcapacity from undermining local production and their own industrial capacity.
The Trump administration has brought US-Pakistan ties closer. What does that concretely mean for India?
This isn’t a zero‑sum shift. U.S.–Pakistan engagement reflects regional security considerations, not a downgrading of India’s role. India’s partnership with the U.S. is broader, deeper, and more future‑oriented—and remains on an upward trajectory.
With Washington openly sceptical of BRICS and India set to host the BRICS summit this year, can India deepen its partnership with the US without diluting its role in BRICS, or does one eventually constrain the other?
India has long shown it can work across multiple alignments. Its partnership with the U.S. advances technology and economic interests; BRICS advances India’s voice in the Global South. Strategic autonomy allows India to strengthen both without being constrained by either. Ultimately, it is in the US interest to have India be a moderating influence in fora where the US is not present.
QUAD has struggled to translate intent into impact—can it still emerge as a credible Indo-Pacific platform, or is it an idea whose strategic moment has yet to arrive?
Yes—if it keeps delivering concrete outcomes. The QUAD’s credibility will come from practical cooperation on maritime awareness, supply‑chain resilience, and emerging technologies. Despite its ups and downs, the Quad has developed a resilient foundation - its future success depends on continuing to translate strategic intent into tangible outcomes.