AHMEDABAD: Asiatic lion numbers in Gujarat have climbed to 891 as of January 31, 2026, but the celebratory headline is shadowed by the stark subtext of 322 deaths in just three years, exposing a worrying churn between population growth and persistent mortality.
The Asiatic lion census data tabled in the Gujarat Legislative Assembly by the state government sketches a paradox that cannot be ignored: the total population of Asiatic lions has risen to 891, yet a parallel mortality ledger reveals 322 deaths, natural and unnatural, over the last three years, raising sharp questions about survival sustainability beneath the headline growth.
This headline figure of 891, comprising 255 lions, 405 lionesses and 231 cubs, signals demographic expansion, but the very composition also underlines vulnerability, because cub-heavy populations inherently face higher mortality pressures, a trend that becomes evident when the death data is unpacked year by year.
The mortality trail begins in 2024, where 40 lions, 44 lionesses and 79 cubs died, along with two unidentified carcasses, instantly pushing cub deaths into the spotlight and hinting at ecological and habitat stressors that disproportionately impact the youngest segment of the population.
The pattern does not flatten in 2025; instead, it continues with 32 lions, 44 lionesses and 66 cubs lost, plus six unidentified bodies, thereby reinforcing that the attrition is not episodic but structurally persistent across consecutive years.
Even the first month of 2026 sustains the trend, with three lions, three lionesses and three cubs already dead by January-end, suggesting that mortality momentum has carried forward into the current year without any visible deceleration.
Disaggregating the data sharpens the narrative further: natural causes alone account for 258 deaths over three years, including 28 lions, 28 lionesses and 68 cubs in 2024, followed by 28 lions, 38 lionesses and 55 cubs in 2025, and another six deaths in January 2026 a trajectory that underscores ageing populations, territorial fights, disease and ecological pressures as constant background risks.
Yet, the more alarming signal emerges from unnatural deaths, which cumulatively touch 64 in three years, comprising 12 lions, 16 lionesses and 11 cubs in 2024, followed by 4 lions, 6 lionesses, 11 cubs and one unidentified carcass in 2025, and three more deaths in the opening month of 2026 thereby pointing toward human-wildlife conflict, accidents and habitat interface hazards that continue to claim lives.
Thus, while the official narrative foregrounds population growth, the deeper data narrative reveals a simultaneous and relentless mortality churn, meaning that every incremental rise in lion numbers is being counterbalanced by steady annual losses, forcing a critical policy question: is Gujarat merely increasing births faster than deaths, or is it truly securing long-term survival stability for its iconic species?