DEHRADUN: In a chilling revelation that underscores the existential threat posed by climate change, a new study conducted by Mizoram University professor has warned that the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region—often referred to as the "Third Pole" and the "Water Tower of Asia"—is facing rapid, irreversible environmental degradation.
The research, conducted by Vishwambhar Prasad Sati of Mizoram University and his student Surajit Banerjee, and recently published in the international journal Earth Science Reviews, paints a grim picture of a cryosphere in distress. The study highlights that the region is experiencing temperature spikes at double the global average, driving a cycle of melting glaciers and receding snow cover that threatens the water security of over 86 crore people.
Speaking to The New Indian Express, Professor Sati said, "Data spanning from 1980 to 2020 indicates that temperatures in the HKH region have climbed at a rate of 0.2 to 0.3 degrees Celsius per decade. This warming is particularly acute in parts of the Eastern Himalayas, where shifts in precipitation patterns have accelerated glacial retreat."
"If the current trend of temperature rise persists, projections suggest that by the end of the 21st century, approximately 68 percent of the Himalayan ice cover could vanish. Even the rugged Karakoram Range is not immune, with experts estimating a 26 percent loss in its snow cover within the same timeframe," warned Professor Sati.
"The rapid melting of glaciers is not merely a loss of ice; it is creating immediate disaster risks," he explained adding, "As glaciers retreat, they leave behind swelling glacial lakes. The expansion of these water bodies has significantly heightened the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs)—sudden, catastrophic deluges that can devastate downstream communities."
Furthermore, the thawing of the active layer of Permafrost—increasing by 2 to 23 centimeters annually—is destabilizing mountain slopes. This geological weakening is triggering an uptick in landslides, rockfalls and land subsidence incidents across the region, further endangering local infrastructure and lives.
The Himalayan ecosystem is the primary lifeline for Asia’s major river systems, including the Indus River, Ganges River, Brahmaputra River, Tarim River and Amu Darya. These rivers derive 33 to 42 percent of their annual flow from meltwater, sustaining the agricultural and hydroelectric needs of approximately 86.9 crore people.
However, the hydrological cycle is being disrupted. Glacial melt is causing premature surges in river discharge during the pre-monsoon season, leading to unseasonal flooding. Conversely, as glacial volumes dwindle, long-term water availability during the dry seasons faces a precarious future.
"This is not just an environmental issue; it is a critical threat to water security, agriculture, and power generation across South and Central Asia," the study notes.
The researchers emphasise that the window for mitigation is closing. Experts argue that safeguarding this vital region requires a multi-pronged approach: robust, real-time monitoring of the Himalayan cryosphere, enhanced regional cooperation among neighbouring nations, and the immediate development of climate-resilient infrastructure.
"If effective measures are not taken in time, the rapid degradation of glaciers, snow cover, and permafrost in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya could destabilize one of the world's most critical water systems," the study concludes, serving as a stark warning to policymakers and the global community alike.