The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its seasonal forecast, predicting cooler days but warmer nights across major parts of the country during the upcoming summer months, except for most areas in the east and northeast.
According to the IMD, summer temperatures are expected to be normal to below normal, with warmer nights anticipated in many regions except for parts of Maharashtra and Telangana from April to June.
During this period, heatwave conditions are likely to develop in some areas of east, central, and northwest India, as well as the southeast peninsula. Additionally, there is a higher likelihood that El Niño will influence the second half of the monsoon season, potentially weakening monsoon rainfall.
The IMD forecasts a wetter April for most of the country, particularly in the northwest.
During April 2026, the department predicts that monthly maximum temperatures will be normal to below normal in many areas. However, above-normal maximum temperatures are expected in parts of east and northeast India, as well as some regions in northwest India and the southern peninsula.
This cooler April is attributed to the expected above-normal rainfall. Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology at the IMD, mentioned that the frequent arrival of western disturbances is likely to result in increased rainfall during April.
The IMD has indicated that average rainfall across the country as a whole is expected to be above normal (greater than 112% of the Long Period Average, LPA), with the exception of Northeast India.
The below-normal rainfall in Northeast India is expected to keep the region warmer. Due to the anticipated wet conditions in April, the frequency of heatwaves has decreased.
The IMD noted that above-normal heatwave conditions are primarily affecting coastal regions, especially along the eastern coast and in some areas of the western coast.
Coastal areas of Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Andhra Pradesh may experience 4 to 5 additional heatwave days compared to the normal range of 4 to 7 days in April. In March, the country received above-normal rainfall, with the exception of the northwest region.
This was largely due to an increase in western disturbance activities in the latter half of the month, with eight western disturbances impacting India compared to the normal of 5-6. Unfortunately, heavy rainfall led to the loss of about 45 lives across the country. Despite the rainfall, March recorded the second highest number of warmer nights since 1901.