Japan’s parliament, called the National Diet, has two houses—House of Councillors (upper house) and the House of Representatives (lower house). Elections were held on December 14 to the 475-seat powerful lower house two years ahead of schedule.
The ruling coalition captured a two-thirds majority that gives the Shinzo Abe administration the power to push legislation through the Diet. In an approval for the prime minister, voters supported Abe’s efforts to stabilise Japan’s politics and produce tangible results showing their high expectations from his policies in the face of economic contraction.
The opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) fielded fewer candidates than the number needed for a majority in the lower house, partly due to insufficient time to prepare, drawing criticism from party members. Opposition leader Banri Kaieda lost his seat while former prime minister Naoto Kan of the DPJ just managed to win in the proportional representation bloc.
The Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) tactic of dissolving the House of Representatives for a general election at a time when opposition parties were least prepared was clear gambling by Abe that paid off. But challenges await in the economic, social and diplomatic fields—prolonged deflation and postponement of an additional hike in the consumption tax by 18 months after his Abenomics policies lost steam, fuelling uncertainty over the domestic economy. LDP and its coalition partner, Komeito, garnered 326 seats, one more than a two-thirds majority, in the lower house. A two-thirds majority in the chamber will allow the reenactment of bills rejected by the upper house. Such a majority in the lower house also lets the coalition possibly to propose amendment to the Constitution.
In a post-election address, Abe said, “I am determined to avoid arrogance. I will give top priority to the economy and pursue economic diplomacy to heighten Japan’s global status. I will enact legislation regarding security in the next Diet session to protect the people’s lives.”
According to November figures, Japan’s economic output had shrunk for the second quarter in a row—which means the nation is now in what is called a technical recession. Also, growth in private consumption, which accounts for about 60 per cent of Japan’s economic health, was much weaker than expected. Analysis pointed that an increase in Japan’s sales tax in April, intended to boost the national coffers, has instead put consumers off buying new things, especially big-ticket items like car, durables and housing.
The increase in consumption tax in April was from 5% to 8% and there was a plan to raise it again next year to 10%. Abe plans to delay this, and felt an election win would give him a mandate to do so besides an additional two years.
Abenomics was designed to help pull Japan out of two decades of deflation and kick-start its stagnant economy with three so-called arrows: monetary policy, fiscal stimulus and structural reforms. Japan’s central bank helped pump billions of dollars into the economy via its big stimulus package, around $725 billion annually, and was confident enough to set a new inflation target of 2%. The value of the yen depreciated about 40% and big exporters are making big profits as Japanese goods become cheaper to buy in overseas markets and boosts share prices of such firms in the stock market. Abe wants to continue his economic reforms and therefore sought a fresh mandate.
Abe may push through unpopular moves such as restarting nuclear reactors that remain shut since the triple disasters in March 2011 and collective self-defence (a reinterpretation of Japan’s post-war pacifist constitution to allow for the use of force to defend allies under attack). Now, Abe is all set to confidently introduce related legislations in the parliament.
With the main opposition in complete disarray, the “there is no alternative” (TINA) factor ruled voters’ choice. The third force, including the Japan Innovation Party, failed to win the support of many voters after their high-profile splits and reorganisations. Such ineffective opposition parties are also a reason why the election was subdued, with a post-war low of 52% turnout. An ageing society coupled with declining birth rate are also challenges in making Japan a strong country again with a clear-cut role in international community.
Abe has to deal with myriad challenges simultaneously and spell out how he aims to achieve these goals. LDP is the only powerful, strong and large party in Japan while DPJ did not field enough candidates, thus proving it has failed to reconstruct itself as a party capable of taking the reins of government again. Nevertheless, it won 73 seats, 11 more than its pre-election strength of 62. The Japan Communist Party nearly tripled its strength to 21 seats, enough to submit bills for a vote by the lower house. Shintaro Ishihara, another nationalist of the Party of Future Generation, lost his own seat in Tokyo and announced retirement from politics while both the tainted ministers of Abe’s previous cabinet—Obuchi and Matsushima—retained their seats.
A post-poll survey by Kyodo news agency reveals 55% of public opinion is not in favour of Abe’s security policies. Further, 105,000 voters in Hokkaido exercised the NOTA preference. But 80% elected MPs are in support of Abe’s move to amend the constitution. Abe has plans to change the constitutional status of the emperor from “Symbol of Unity of Nation and Society” to “Head of State”, increase contents of nationalism in education, give more power to self-defence forces and deploy them overseas through collective security measures.
In place of human rights, Abe plans to emphasise Japanese cultural uniqueness in its constitution. During campaigning, Abe called the election a referendum on his economic policies and hence he needs to focus on Japan’s economic revival besides strengthening social security measures in the light of its ageing population and declining birth rate.
Japan faces a powerful China, which leaves it with the only option to strengthen its alliance with the US. In both areas, Abe’s determination and ability to strike a balance will go for a test. This strong Abe win is more representative of a trust deficit in the opposition, which now has a challenge of political realignment, than a wave of support for Abenomics and the kind of nationalism he represents.
The author teaches Japanese studies at the School of International Studies, JNU.
Email: hsprabhakar@gmail.com