As the Iran-Israel conflict escalates, there is growing tension on the stability of what strategic thinkers characterise as the ‘third nuclear age’. Unlike previous periods dominated by US-Soviet dynamics, this era presents distinct challenges, including the rise of cyber threats to nuclear control systems, the proliferation of nuclear capabilities among regional powers, and the erosion of traditional arms control frameworks.
Understanding this evolving landscape is crucial for maintaining strategic stability, particularly in volatile regions like West and North Asia.
The three nuclear ages
During the first nuclear age, the doctrine of mutually assured destruction essentially underpinned the architecture of deterrence. The US and Soviet Union, though rivals, maintained a fragile peace through arms control agreements that ensured any nuclear conflict would lead to catastrophic consequences for both. Other nuclear powers UK and France walked in lockstep with the US, and China adhered to a no-first use policy.
The second nuclear age dawned in 1998, when India and Pakistan crashed the theological basis of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Pakistan’s first-use policy coupled with its intrinsic domestic instability injected a dynamic of unpredictability in the global nuclear order.
However, in the third nuclear age, the proliferation of nuclear technology to regional actors like North Korea and Iran, coupled with the covertly-overt nuclear status of Israel and the erosion of longstanding arms control agreements, have introduced new variables.
The current arms control framework is collapsing. Russia’s suspension of compliance with the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the last key arms control pact between the US and Russia, marks a disturbing development. Once it expires in January 2026, the world could face its first period since the early 1970s without major arms control agreement among the two leading powers. Traditional safeguards may no longer be sufficient to prevent a nuclear escalation.
At the core of this instability are Israel, a de facto nuclear power, and Iran, a country whose nuclear ambitions are a screw-turn away from reality. Their ongoing rivalry, driven by Tehran’s nuclear pursuits and Israel’s perception of a nuclear Iran as an existential threat, has the potential to escalate into a nuclear conflict. The consequences of such a clash would be devastating, not only for the broader West Asia, but also for global security.
India’s strategic interests
India has crucial stakes in maintaining stability in West Asia. As one of the largest importers of oil from here, any disruption in supplies would have serious repercussions.
Additionally, millions of Indian expats work in Gulf countries, significantly boosting India’s foreign exchange reserves through remittances. A conflict in the region could trigger an economic shock and create a humanitarian crisis.
On a larger scale, India has consistently advocated for universal and comprehensive global nuclear disarmament while recognising the importance of deterrence for its own security. This balanced stance underscores India’s role as a responsible nuclear power.
With tensions between Iran and Israel escalating, India’s position as a key player in the Global South and a proponent of a rules-based international order becomes vital.
India’s strategic autonomy, which allows it to maintain balanced ties with both Iran and Israel, offers a unique opportunity to mobilise the Global South to play a role to secure a modus vivendi between the two countries, given the Global North is firmly behind Israel and has been historically antagonistic towards Iran, notwithstanding some lip service once in a while by France.
While Israel remains a key defence partner, Iran plays a crucial role in India’s outreach to Central Asia, particularly through the Chabahar port project.
India’s non-alignment policy and longstanding support for peaceful conflict resolution provide a potential framework for diplomatic efforts. Multilateral platforms like the UN, where India has consistently promoted dialogue, could be instrumental. Regionally, forums such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which includes Iran, may offer a more focused space for dialogue.
By leveraging its influence, India could lead initiatives encouraging both Iran and Israel to reduce tensions, particularly by encouraging the revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which sought to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Though the JCPOA has faced setbacks, notably the US’s withdrawal in 2018 and subsequent violations by Iran, it still remains a step for tempering Iran’s ambitions. A renewed global effort to revive the agreement, potentially with stronger verification measures and economic incentives, could help prevent an unstable dynamic playing itself out.
Furthermore, cyber warfare has emerged as a key concern in the third nuclear age, with countries developing advanced capabilities. The risk of cyberattacks on nuclear command systems threatens to undermine deterrence or trigger accidental launches.
The current arms control pacts do not fully address these new vulnerabilities. The international community must act swiftly to establish norms preventing cyberattacks on nuclear infrastructure.
A new approach
Iran has significantly expanded its stockpile of enriched uranium to near weapons-grade defying international demands. According to a recent International Atomic Energy Agency report, as of August 17, Iran possessed 164.7 kg of uranium enriched up to 60 percent, marking a 22.6-kg increase since May 2024. It is only a short technical step away from the 90 percent enrichment required for weapons-grade material.
Within Iran, debates about its regional posture and nuclear ambitions highlight the crossroads at which Tehran stands. The weakening of its forward defence strategy—the use of proxies—may push hardliners towards more drastic actions. While this does not signal an immediate move towards nuclear weapons, it suggests Iran is exploring other ways to establish credible deterrence.
The ongoing cycle of asymmetrical conflict between Iran and Israel exposes Tehran’s military limitations and could drive it to pursue more unpredictable measures in search for reliable deterrence.
India can contribute to strategic stability by advocating for global nuclear dialogue for making nuclear non-proliferation architecture more concurrent, promoting cybersecurity norms, and encouraging regional dialogues where there are nuclear flashpoints.
Manish Tewari
Lawyer, third-term MP, former Information & Broadcasting Minister
(Views are personal)
(manishtewari01@gmail.com)