US President Donald Trump’s interest to end the war in Iran is not in doubt. His predicament is that it may inexorably turn into an attritional conflict and wreck his presidential legacy—for this was not a war of necessity. Meanwhile, Iran’s nuclear issue has been negotiated threadbare. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was spot-on when he disclosed at Islamabad that the two delegations were only “inches away” from clinching a deal.
The usually pro-Trump conservative magazine Washington Examiner featured an article on Wednesday titled ‘Pressure builds on Trump to find off-ramp on Iran war’, which held a mirror at the deepening unpopularity of the war. Yet, Trump’s flag carrier and social-media platform Truth Social promptly reproduced the article authored by the magazine’s White House reporter Mabinty Quarshie, calling attention to it because a defining moment has come.
Democrats have zeroed in on the war as Trump’s Achilles’ heel as he mobilises for the crucial midterm elections in November, which will decide the fate of his presidency in ways more than one. Former President Bill Clinton has launched a daily podcast leading the charge of the light brigade.
A perilous period lies ahead. Most analysts are of the opinion that even if a second round of talks is held in Islamabad, it may not necessarily mean a conclusive farewell to arms. Trump himself implicitly acknowledged the quagmire when he disclosed that the US’s “armada” will stay put in the Persian Gulf for the foreseeable future. It is entirely conceivable that Trump may order some ground operation, as the continuing deployment of infantry and special forces with amphibious ships and helicopters suggest.
In such an event, there will be dire need for basing facilities nearby in the Indian Ocean hinterland, preferably in the Arabian Sea region. All the US bases in the Persian Gulf region have been rendered dysfunctional following attacks by Iran and will be out of reach for any large ground operations in Iran. The regional states themselves will not want to get entangled in a US operation given Tehran’s advance notice that it will retaliate. In the prevailing geopolitical alignments, Pakistan is also unlikely to be seen rendering help to the American war effort. Not only is Pakistan a mediator, but anti-American sentiments are widespread in that country. Pakistan’s ties with Iran have become exceptionally warm and fraternal, and carry the imprimatur of Field Marshal Asim Munir.
In the event of a confrontation with Iran over the status of Strait of Hormuz, Trump’s armada will be hard-pressed, as the nearest American naval base will be Diego Garcia. Pentagon may come under compulsion to invoke basing facility in India under the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement, the foundational military agreement between India and the US (which the Congress-led UPA government had dithered from signing) that allows their armed forces to access each other’s bases for refuelling, supplies and repairs. The pact facilitates reciprocal logistical support, including food, water, medical services, and transport, boosting operational reach without requiring automatic commitments or establishing permanent American bases in India.
Suffice to say, the motivations behind Trump’s ever-frequent telephone calls to Prime Minister Narendra Modi lately—the last one professing his “love” for India—need to be understood properly. Trump is tough as nails and without batting an eyelid, put British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on the mat for initially saying ‘nyet’ to a demand for basing facilities.
Indeed, Iran is effectively acting like the winning side already, insisting on conditions that include the lifting of sanctions, possible compensation from the US, expanded control over the Strait of Hormuz, and the preservation of the right to enrich uranium like any other Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty signatory. On the other hand, Trump is called upon to show that the war was purposive and resulted in a significantly better deal than the Iran nuclear deal that Barack Obama had negotiated. Viewed from Iran’s perspective, though, the searing experience of the collapse of the deal at the hands of Trump becomes a benchmark. Given such a complex backdrop of memory mixing with desire, there are some major considerations to be factored in. Most importantly, the deal failed to resolve the ‘Iran nuclear issue’. The file is still wide open and, if anything, it became even more complicated. Iran fulfilled its obligations right until Trump tore up the agreement in 2019. But then, to be fair, neither Obama nor the European signatories kept their part of the bargain either. Actually, they didn’t even make a serious effort.
Obama chickened out due to the near-certainty that the US Congress would reject the deal under pressure from the Israel lobby, which had opposed the Iran nuclear deal tooth and nail. And the Europeans simply followed the Pied Piper, as in the German folktale, instead of daring to act independently in self-interest. As for the International Atomic Energy Agency, it played a shameful role under Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi, who practically acted as an agent of the US and Israeli intelligence for reasons best known to him—although the 2015 deal had the UN Security Council’s approval.
Grossi is still keeping his job in Vienna and continues to be the ‘watchdog’ for implementation of any new US-Iran deal. What his reward is going to be will be known only after the choice of the next UN Secretary General to succeed António Guterres, whose second term is coming to an end on December 31. (The process is under way to select and appoint Guterres’s successor.) Suffice to say, there is blood on the hands of the Americans, Europeans and IAEA in the cold-blooded murder of the 2015 nuclear deal.
No wonder Tehran insists that there be no cynical replay. Simply put, Iran cannot give up its demand for a guarantee that it will not face US-Israeli aggression in the downstream of any new deal. Do not underestimate Iran’s sense of honour. The grotesqueness of the war Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu chose to wage, especially the horrific murder of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has left deep scars. Iran will never capitulate.
M K Bhadrakumar | Former diplomat
(Views are personal)