A popular government has been installed in Manipur nine days ahead of the completion of a year of President’s rule in the state. Saved in the process was an imminent dissolution of the 12th Manipur legislative assembly, for it is unlikely that an extension of the ‘suspended animation’ that the assembly had been put under since February 13, 2025 would have been approved by Parliament even if President’s rule had to be extended.
A decision to extend the President’s rule beyond a year would have invited constitutional complications. The 44th amendment enacted in 1978—which curbed the powers given to the President by the Emergency-era 38th amendment in respect to the use of Articles 356 and 352—predicates this. President’s rule now can be extended beyond a year only in the event of an armed rebellion or a report confirming infeasibility of fresh elections by the Election Commission of India.
On February 4, after a seemingly desperate conclave of all BJP legislators from Manipur at the BJP head office in New Delhi, moderated and supervised by BJP national general secretary Tarun Chugh and national spokesperson and Northeast coordinator Sambit Patra, a consensus was reached on who should lead the next government once the assembly was resuscitated out of its coma.
Yumnam Khemchand Singh emerged as the choice, and with him four others were agreed to be put on the first list to be sworn in as cabinet ministers. From the choice of MLAs for the new cabinet, the delicate but inevitable ethnic and party balancing act in Manipur’s current volatile situation is evident.
The chief minister, a Meitei, is to have two deputy chief ministers: Nemcha Kipgen, a Kuki, and Losii Dikho, a Naga. Again, while Khemchand and Nemcha are from the BJP, Losii is from the Naga People’s Front, a BJP ally with five MLAs.
Of the two other MLAs awarded cabinet berths, one is Khuraijam Loken Singh of the National People’s Party, another BJP ally with six MLAs. The other is Govindas Konthoujam, also from the BJP. This importance given to allies, although the BJP commands a comfortable majority in the House with 37 MLAs in the 60-member assembly, is probably a precautionary measure in case of rebellions within the party.
By the ceiling on cabinet size introduced by the 91st constitutional amendment in 2003, Manipur can have a 12-member council of ministers including the chief minister. With five already distributed, there are seven seats left to be announced, which can be as much a cause for problems or levers for their solutions later.
After their meeting in Delhi, most of the MLAs rushed back to Imphal. By 4 pm, Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla declared the President’s rule lifted and soon Khemchand visited him to stake claim to form the next government. By 6 pm, the swearing-in ceremony was underway at Lok Bhavan, Imphal. Four of the new cabinet members took their oaths of office and secrecy in person, while the fifth, Nemcha Kipgen, did so online from Manipur Bhavan in New Delhi.
Two other Kuki-Zo MLAs, Ngursanglur Sanate of the BJP and L M Khaute of the Janata Dal (United), were also present in Imphal for the swearing-in, indicating that apart from the message that ethnic tensions have been defused in Imphal, they could also be inducted into the cabinet if and when there is a next expansion.
Khemchand won the race because of several factors. One of them is the courage he had shown on December 8 to make a surprise visit to a camp for internally displaced Kuki people at Litan on a trip to Ukhrul, to convey his Christmas wishes of peace and reconciliation, warming many hearts. Therefore, he probably received nods even from his Kuki-Zo colleagues.
Again, the transparency with which he invested his local area development funds as an MLA during both his terms won wide admiration, even of his rivals, though grudgingly. Lastly, he is an unabashed affiliate of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, and therefore had powerful backers.
There are two probable reasons behind the need felt in the BJP camp to revive the current assembly. The more charitable among these is a realisation that a President’s rule has limitations in conflict resolution beyond a certain point. In the routine businesses of governance, such as upkeep of law-and-order, running of public services and implementation of projects, the bureaucrat-run governance of a President’s rule can be excellent. However, in any conflict resolution effort—where the last mile in the long trek calls for intimate understanding and familiarity with local communities, their leaders and organisations, so as to be able to motivate them to sit across the negotiating table—popularly elected leaders become vital.
The other probable reason for the rush is electoral calculus. The Manipur assembly elections are due one year later in February 2027. The BJP would obviously want to have the advantage of going to the polls as the ruling party. The harsh lesson of the 2024 Lok Sabha election, in which the BJP lost both the state’s seats, would be still haunting it. The fact that the five MLAs of the Congress have been calling for dissolution of the assembly and fresh elections give further credence to this speculation.
All said, seen purely from the standpoint of a possible way forward from the depressing ethnic crisis the state has been thrown into for nearly three years, it is difficult not to see the revival of a popular government as a positive move.
But, as always, prolonged conflicts spawn entrenched interests in the conflict itself, who begin to see the conflict as a market to bargain for gains, as Paul Collier noted in his 2003 report titled, ‘Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy’.
This is regardless of the realisation that Manipur is multi-ethnic and a resolution to the present conflict cannot be reduced to a bilateral settlement between the Meiteis and the Kuki-Zos. The Nagas in particular have made this clear with words and actions in recent times. Not taking cognisance of this reality and refusing to look for a peaceful negotiated settlement can only perpetuate what, in effect, has proved to be a war on quicksand.
Pradip Phanjoubam | Editor, Imphal Review of Arts and Politics
(Views are personal)
(phanjoubam@gmail.com)