Since 2023, Thai politics has changed direction several times. In under three years, three different prime ministers from separate political families and parties have led the country. This instability has deepened the divide between those who support popular representation and those who favour the conservative monarchical and military order that has shaped Thailand for almost a century. The latest election in February 2026 has heralded the new government under Anutin Charnvirakul and the Bhumjaithai Party.
This article will address four key questions critical to any understanding of the political situation in the country. First, why did the Move Forward Party (MFP) not lead the government? Second, what decisions led to the shift from Move Forward’s momentum to the Shinawatras’ return through the Pheu Thai Party? Third, what reasons did the Constitutional Court give for removing two elected prime ministers during the transitions between Srettha Thavisin and Paetongtarn Shinawatra? Fourth, how is the current election different and if Anutin’s leadership could mean stability in Thailand?
First, although MFP became the largest party in the 2023 general elections, it could not even achieve a majority through coalition. This shows that winning the most seats does not always mean gaining power. The MFP’s reform plans faced strong opposition. Senior party leader Pita Limjaroenrat questioned the influence of big business and the military in Thai politics. He argued that the close ties between the two limited participation and encouraged crony capitalism, which affected political leadership.
The most sensitive topic was the monarchy. Pita’s call to reform the lèse-majesté law, which makes it a crime to publicly criticise the monarch, drew strong reactions from conservative groups. Since the monarchy is still highly respected in Thailand, these proposals made many people uneasy about what an MFP government might do.
Second, even though the MFP won 151 seats and became the largest party, the way Thailand forms its government is not balanced. The House of Representatives has 500 seats, with 400 directly chosen by electors and the remaining by party-list voting. The party-list system lets parties win votes across the country and put ‘loyal’ candidates in Parliament, sometimes allowing people with little political experience but strong connections to become lawmakers.
The Senate is just as important. According to the 2017 Constitution, all 250 senators are appointed and help choose the PM. When it was time to vote, the Senate gave little support to MFP’s candidate, so Pita did not get enough votes. This allowed the Pheu Thai Party, which succeeded the Thai Rak Thai Party founded by Thaksin Shinawatra, to form a coalition with groups linked to the military and monarchy. These former rivals joined forces, making Srettha Thavisin prime minister in 2023.
Third, ongoing changes in leadership were also influenced by internal politics and court decisions. The switch from Thavisin to Paetongtarn Shinawatra happened after a Constitutional Court ruling. Thavisin’s term was mostly uneventful, but he faced criticism for appointing a lawyer who had been convicted in a case related to the Shinawatra family. The court said this choice did not meet the ethical standards expected of the office and ordered Thavasin’s removal. This situation again showed the tensions between coalition partners who had been rivals for a long time.
After Thavisin’s removal, Paetongtarn Shinawatra took the office in August 2024 and became Thailand’s youngest woman PM. Her leadership brought renewed attention to the Shinawatra family’s ties in the region. The ongoing Preah Vihear dispute continues to cause border tensions between Thailand and Cambodia, especially when someone from the Shinawatra family is in charge.
Some in the Thai military are suspicious of the Shinawatras’ close relationship with Cambodia’s leaders, especially former Prime Minister Hun Sen. These worries grew when a phone call between Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Hun Sen went public and caused a controversy. The Constitutional Court later ruled that her actions threatened national stability and security. As a result, she was removed from office which allowed Anutin to take over in September 2025.
Fourth, when Anutin Charnvirakul first became prime minister, new divisions appeared instead of quick unity. The MFP, now called the People’s Party, supported Anutin and the Bhumjaithai Party. Their support depended on his promise to hold early elections that might lead to constitutional reform.
Anutin kept his promise, and early elections took place in February 2026. The results showed a change: the Bhumjaithai Party won 193 seats and together with its coalition partners gained a majority of over 290 seats in the lower house.
After years of dismissals and quick changes in leadership, Thailand now has a majority party with its leader as prime minister. Still, the situation is fragile. Anutin Charnvirakul must balance the demands of those who want more democratic reforms with the interests of conservative groups that support the military and monarchy which have long influenced Thai politics.
Shankari Sundararaman | ASIAN AXIS | Professor at School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University
(Views are personal)
(shankari@mail.jnu.ac.in)