In 1898, Mark Twain wrote about the telectroscope in his short story ‘From the London Times of 1904’. The telectroscope was a limitless-distance telephone that would make the “daily doings of the globe” visible and audible to everyone. Essentially, Twain imagined the smart phone and social media a century before their arrival.
Not all predictions land well. In the past 100 years, trends have been spotted and missed. In 2000, writers at Popular Mechanics predicted man will holiday on the moon—a possibility per Elon Musk; Darryl Zanuck said folks would tire of watching TV; scientists predicted a new ice age in the 1970s and said pollution would obliterate the sun. Those in Delhi may testify it is happening and others may state it’s only a matter of time.
So, what does 2026 hold for the world—and specifically for India? The primary facet of 2026 is not the sudden shock, but Milton Friedman’s long and variable lag. Risk-benefit analysis calls for the usual caveats. In geopolitics, as in pathology, risks are present even if symptoms are yet to show up. In economics and technology, it is useful to remember the warning on the passenger-side mirror of cars—like objects, trends and threats are closer than they appear.
Here are a few trends and threats hovering at the gates of 2026—from geopolitics and economics to technology and financial markets.
The headlines are spelling it out—the spectre of war is darker in 2026. On Saturday, US forces carried out strikes and, in a Sicario kind of operation, took Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro out of the country. A day earlier, US President Donald J Trump told the world, “We are locked and loaded and ready to go” if Iran kills protestors. Is the Caracas playbook a template for Tehran? Is the lift-and-shift code on open source? Will it inform China on Taiwan and Russia on Ukraine? The Global Peace Index reveals 78 countries are waging wars beyond their borders. The expansion of war and modernisation will trigger an arms race and boost the military-industrial complex—revenues of arms makers have touched $679 billion and the value of the top 50 defence companies crossed $1.5 trillion.
Like the India-US trade deal is unlikely to materialise anytime soon—not until the Ukraine peace-for-materials deal. The tariff theatre will play through 2026—deals with China, Mexico, Canada and India are all up in the air. The affordability crisis has put the Trump administration in management mode, forcing suspension of some tariffs—this week they held back tariffs on furniture! The ubiquitous question of 2026 is whether Trump will be tariffed by the US Supreme Court; the answer is ‘unlikely’. The cure cannot be worse than the disease. The remedies could range from other three-digit laws to a legislative detour via Congress.
Fear of the AI bubble is billowing as IMF and Bank of England join the choir. But there is no let-up in investor optimism. Analyst reports are not yet invidious on Nvidia—which has a 91 percent buy—nor its cousins like TSMC. That said, 2026 is dubbed as ‘Show Me’ revenue year. The air is popping with the phraseology of risks as hyper-scalers invest over $500 billion. Bulls, hedging their punts to include user-groups, argue “electricity and internet didn’t boost productivity instantly”. The US has a history of excess. The correction could morph into a crisis impacting currencies and indices—the Nifty50 will be hit as global investors sell the saleable to balance ledgers.
Like the accelerated adoption of agentic AI proves that the tech is not a bubble. Its disruptive power is palpable in entry level jobs. Studies warn of lower hiring as processes are upended across sectors deploying AI. The adoption of agentic AI will retrench human interface and jobs. Bajaj Finance aims to lend Rs 5,300 crore via voice bots; agentic AI sits at the core of insurance providers. The impact is visible in slower hiring in IT services, the largest exporter, largest formal employer and consumption multiplier in India. The cascading impact of AI on jobs, income, growth and investment merits urgent attention.
The idea of global financial stability is largely scaffolded by optics. The cockroaches of risk, a term JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon coined, are real in the sovereign bonds market and in private credit markets. Bailouts could make it worse. Large economies are in a spiral of deficit and debt. Unsurprisingly, a strange paradox is playing out. In the past year, the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 1.75 percentage points and India’s RBI by 1.25 percentage points. Theory says that yields must drop; but instead, they are up in the US and hardly budging in India. This week, the RBI revealed that state governments’ borrowing, at Rs 12.13 lakh crore, is the highest ever. The rise in the prices of gold and silver by 64 percent and 150 percent represents angst about the future.
Like the reality of K-shaped economies is here to stay. This is best reflected in data. Governments are borrowing to keep alive the bottom leg of the K, while the top is thriving. The top 500 billionaires added $2.2 trillion to their wealth in 2025, more than any large economy in the world. Markets are about the survival of the fittest and democracies are obliged to revive the weakest. A confluence of disruptions informed and influenced by the Jevons Paradox’s promise to upend business and economic models, worsening the affordability crisis.
Finally, when thinking about the future, it is useful to remember that the past is not necessarily the prologue and black swans are known to make an appearance.
Read all columns by Shankkar Aiyar
Author of The Gated Republic, Aadhaar: A Biometric History of India’s 12 Digit Revolution, and Accidental India
(shankkar.aiyar@gmail.com)