The 180-degree turnaround of former prime minister and JD(S) supremo H D Deve Gowda to strike an alliance with the BJP for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls is to do with the party’s survival more than anything else. But the party’s now-expelled, then state president and ex-Union minister C M Ibrahim vehemently opposed the party, with its secular credentials, tying up with the right-wing BJP. Events panned out with Ibrahim and the then JD(S) national vice-president C K Nanu splitting from the mother party to form a faction which they term as the ‘real JD(S)’, claiming a majority of the party’s 19 MLAs in Karnataka to be on their side.
As expected, Gowda expelled them. Following this, Nanu, who now claims to be the JD(S) national president, held a party convention to ‘remove’ Gowda from the post of national president. The ‘removal’ has no locus standi as Nanu and Ibrahim were already expelled from the party.
A majority of the JD(S) MLAs are still firmly with Gowda; besides, Ibrahim, despite being a fine orator, is not a mass leader, especially in the JD(S)’s perceived stronghold of Hassan-Mysuru-Mandya region, where the Congress, too, enjoys a firm grip, being the bastion of Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and deputy CM D K Shivakumar.
In fact, the Congress had wooed the minority votes away from the JD(S), which resulted in the party’s pathetic performance in the 2023 Assembly polls. Besides, the JD(S) was also not invited to the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A), the Congress-led 28-party-strong opposition front to contest the 2024 Lok Sabha polls to dislodge the ruling BJP from the Centre. This formed the core reason for an alliance with BJP for its survival despite ideological differences.
The developments in JD(S) are not expected to affect its alliance with the BJP. For Gowda, the bigger problem is to retain his MLAs in the party fold.
The threat to JD(S)’s survival is not from the Nanu-Ibrahim faction, but from the Congress. The grand old party is expected to go all out to strengthen its base in Old Mysuru region, which is also strategic to JD(S). Striking a win-win deal with BJP at the Lok Sabha polls is another challenge for Gowda. In all, it appears that the LS polls will be the last-ditch stand for Gowda and JD(S).