The recent terror attacks in the Poonch Rajouri sectors appear to have cautioned the organisers of the G20 Tourism Meeting in Srinagar, due to be held from May 22 to 24, 2023. Ever since August 5, 2019, when Article 370 was amended to give full and final effect to the integration of J&K with India, there hasn’t been a bigger event organised anywhere in J&K. The organisers are right about being apprehensive because a high-profile international event of this nature, if successfully conducted, would be a splendid way of showcasing the degree of normalcy existing in the Union Territory (UT), and place J&K on the world tourism map.
A region with sheer natural beauty has unfortunately remained away from international tourist attention because of the Pakistan-sponsored proxy war, which has seen terrorist and street violence for the better part of over 33 years. It has robbed the UT of its worth and, thus, of potential prosperity through large-scale investment in tourist infrastructure.
Normalcy may not be the right term to be used in assessing the situation and the potential for trouble in an area that has suffered the effects of proxy war through terrorism; it denotes a zero-incident perception. While negative incidents have drastically reduced over the last four years, the existence of rump elements within various parts of J&K always makes for a potential return of violence. Pakistan as the errant neighbour may be in the throes of instability, but it won’t let go of opportunities to project how India allegedly holds J&K by force. Internally, the Indian intelligence agencies have successfully neutralised many separatist and terrorist networks, but the intent of the adversaries continues to exist. For the latter, the successful conduct of an international event in the heart of Kashmir by the government would be a major loss of face and one more step in the Indian campaign to demonstrate the return of stability.
Who is against the conduct of the G20 event, and what would be their intent? Adopting the approach to conduct the event would be based on the answers to these two questions. Those who champion the cause of separatism, use violence and promote turbulence in the streets and the people’s minds have not given up their hope of seeing the back of India. They continue to be sponsored by Pakistan. Just as the Indian Government aims to showcase the positive effects of the amendment of Article 370, the separatists, terrorists, and the sponsors wish to remind the world that a struggle continues in J&K, albeit at a lower intensity which can be ratcheted higher at will. They would like to present J&K in a state of turmoil and under control only through the deployment of security forces; as it is, they quote obnoxiously exaggerated figures of security forces. They would also want to display signs of abnormality through an unhappy population in a security-obsessed region. How can this manifest, and what should the agencies responsible for the event be aware of? This challenge is quite different from securing a region that was in the throes of violence just a few years ago.
The sponsors of the proxy war would ideally like to demonstrate their capability through a big-ticket act. It’s not easy, but they would depend on getting past the security agencies.
While Srinagar itself will be secured to the last degree, a big act such as an IED attack with mass casualties anywhere in J&K can have a debilitating effect on the message of stability we would like to project. This is because the geography of J&K is hardly known to people even in India, let alone abroad. An act in the south of Pir Panjal, with high news potential, will convey in terms of communication strategy as much as an act in the vicinity of Srinagar. As such, the entire UT has to be under tight security cover with full realisation of the trouble potential.
The anti-national elements could depend on a combination of smaller actions across the UT. Minority killings have been a favourite and something difficult to prevent entirely. We must remind ourselves of the killing of 36 innocent Sikhs at Chittisinghpura on March 19, 2000, just when President Bill Clinton was to address the Indian Parliament. It was a powerful but negative message of separatist and terrorist capability in the wake of the Kargil War in the new millennium. The ten convoys of the Army in Kashmir and the numerous ones of the CAPFs are most vulnerable under any circumstances since road security is something no force can guarantee. It may be advisable to restrict movement during this period. The season for the Army’s logistics refurbishment has not yet arrived, so this won’t have any adverse effect.
The presence of foreign delegates from 20 important countries may be just too tempting for the protagonists of separatism. The acts to highlight negativism about the population’s perception could well be less brazen but with powerful communication capability. Online media is one of them. Of late, some excellent online writings with a patriotic tone have been emerging from Kashmir.
A conscious effort towards continuing this, even with bits of anti-national writings, will spell the intended communication strategy. The print media of a region is a means of giving rise to the perception about the state of things. Kashmir’s media is not controlled; it has been open and independent right through the last three decades. We should have no hesitation in allowing the delegates access to the media in general. It will project the nation’s maturity and confidence in itself and the Kashmiri people.
It is unlikely that street demonstrations or anything negative will be organised, given the high priority to security. Quite apart from any aspects of political messaging, the people of Kashmir should be actually using this opportunity to sell the idea of enhanced tourism potential, and that too beyond just Gulmarg, Pahalgam and Sonamarg. The real potential lies in the trekking routes and hiking trails which dot the higher-altitude areas, and it’s not just the Valley but Jammu region and, equally, Ladakh.
So, even as the G20 Tourism Meeting gets underway in Srinagar, this should not just be treated defensively from only the security angle. It’s a golden moment for J&K to sell its true commercial worth to the world by showcasing its beautiful terrain, flora, fauna and culture.
Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)
Former Commander, Srinagar-based 15 Corps. Now Chancellor, Central University
(atahasnain@gmail.com)