At the height of the Samaikyandhra agitation in September, Gopal Naik, a research scholar in Anantapur, was among those invited to a meeting organized by the YSR Congress. To his shock, he was the only non-Reddy from among the dozen on the dais, prompting him to tell his teacher later “there is no space for other communities” in YSR Congress.
Beneath the hype surrounding YSR Congress in Rayalaseema, perceived as its stronghold, this crucial question — the inability to convey a message that it is a party that provides space for all sections and communities — may trouble YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, son of the late YSR, bidding to win the 2014 elections. As you engage small groups of people in a discussion in any part of this region, you get an interesting insight. People belonging to other sections will hear silently when someone from the Reddy community claims it is going to be a “cakewalk” for the YSR Congress. Once he moves away, they open up: “It is not that simple. It is going to be a stiff fight between the Telugu Desam and YSR Congress.” The only exception to this is Kadapa, the native of YSR.
“The backward classes are still largely with the Telugu Desam. Chandrababu Naidu has protected the party structure despite two consecutive losses in 2004 and 2009. The major problem for the TDP, however, is its leadership’s inability at various levels to connect with the young. This is the reason why you find a number of semi-literate youth, who have migrated to towns in search of employment, hooked to the YSR Congress,” explains history teacher Chandrasekhar.
In the months that followed the death of YSR in September, 2009, the Congress found in Jagan a wild cat, unwilling to accept anything other than the throne occupied by his father. As he broke ranks, the Congress had to first browbeat him and then, wait for him to mellow down as he spent 16 months in prison. “The Congress badly needed a face in Andhra-Rayalaseema post-YSR but it has to be one who is willing to play the traditional role of “power receiver” at the beck and call of the high command,” opines Chandrasekhar.
The TDP has, of course, been pushed to the backseat in parts of Kurnool and Kadapa districts following the defection of local leaders to other parties back in 2009. Since then, new leadership has not emerged and it can hope for the tide to turn if some of them return owing to the changed equations — Congress losing ground due to its decision to divide the State and Chiranjeevi’s Praja Rajyam having folded up.
“The TDP is surely showing signs of revival. But, it does not have a local leader good enough to swing it,” points out Chalapathi of Rompicherla village in Punganur constituency, close to the temple town of Tirupati.
Chalapathi, who owns four cows, supplies milk to the Heritage Foods belonging to Naidu’s family. Similar views can be heard in some other constituencies as well. But the scenario could change as elections draw close. Typically in a village set up, leaders and their followers are broadly divided into two groups. Those, who cannot align with the YSRC, have to necessarily choose the TDP this time.
That caste is an integral part of electoral politics also comes out more clearly than ever before. Around the time Jagan spoke at a massive public meeting in Hyderabad, desperate to clear the mud that his release on bail was part of a deal with the Congress, the manner in which people reacted in Kadiri town of Anantapur district, tells you the story that is playing out. “I just saw the speech. He will win,” declared Mehboob Basha in NP Kunta village, on the outskirts of Kadiri.
In Kadiri, about to get into a jeep to return to his village nearby, Chandra Reddy, a farmer, has no doubt as to who will win. “It is because of YSR’s fee reimbursement scheme that my daughter could study MBA in a good college in Tirupati. We will vote for Jagan not so much for him but because of his father.” Minutes after he leaves, Srinivasulu, a contractor from a BC community, is full of praise for the local Telugu Desam legislator for being accessible and predicts a win for him again.
While the status of the State at the time of elections may not be a poll issue for either the TDP or YSRC, the blame having been taken by the Congress, bifurcation seems to have brought about a new thinking among the educated. Amarnath Reddy, a graduate from Pamidi town who works as a sales representative for a cellular firm, recalls a conversation a group of teachers had when they together travelled in a car.
“In future, we should vote only for regional parties, like in Tamil Nadu. Irrespective of which party they align with in Delhi, regional parties will be more responsible towards protecting the interests of local people. They cannot take the kind of decisions the Congress or BJP take keeping their national level political interests in mind.”
What is clear is that in a region which has 52 Assembly constituencies, the usual dynamics revolving around money, caste and strength of local leaders will impact the electoral outcome. It is also a region where shifting loyalties of powerful local “faction leaders” could alter the fate of parties. While the loyalty of the Reddys and large sections of Muslims is known, which way the numerically strong BC communities — Balijas, Boyas, Kurubas and weavers — will swing in an age of identity politics could determine the electoral outcome.
Within this, age factor is going to have its own play. What the history teacher tells you in Anantapur, you get to hear in a different way in Dhone town of Kurnool district. “We have been traditional supporters of the TDP. But, there is pressure from the youth in our families that we should vote for YSR Congress this time,” explains 60-year-old Naganna, who manages a saloon and also happens to be president of the barbers’ association.
If Jagan has a problem of being seen as managing a Reddy-centric party, Naidu faces the predicament of not being able to connect with young voters. Who among the two will manage to ride out the contradictions better in the months to come could determine who gets past the line first.
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