In the run-up to the 2018 Assembly polls, then Congress president Rahul Gandhi had termed JDS as BJP’s B-team. The strategy worked to some extent in discrediting the regional party among a section of minority community voters.
Now, fast forward to 2023. The countdown has started for the Assembly polls. The ruling BJP is making all-out efforts to return to power and JDS leaders have hit the ground running as if they are fighting the battle with their backs to the wall. As part of their larger strategy, they also seem to be trying to preempt a repeat of 2018.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s no-holds-barred attack on the regional party and JDS leaders returning the fire in equal measure indicate that they are extremely cautious about Congress’ efforts to consolidate minority votes by putting them in the same bracket.
Shah tore into JDS in Mandya, the party’s bastion, that too just hours after former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda had appreciated him in a public meeting. The BJP master strategist repeated the same line in Bengaluru the very next day, clearly indicating that it was not an off-the-cuff remark, but part of the party’s well-thought-out strategy in the Old Mysuru region.
Shah is said to have given a clear mandate and a strategy to the party leaders in the state to win at least 35 seats in the region. Even in the party’s internal meetings, the BJP top brass emphasised the need to send a clear message that it will not have an understanding with any party as confusion among voters could only help Congress.
BJP has been trying hard to make big gains in the Congress-JDS bastion by wooing Vokkaliga voters. The state government’s decision to consider the community’s demand for a change in the reservation matrix, though it still lacks clarity, and the unveiling of the Nadaprabhu Kempe Gowda statue at the Bengaluru International Airport by Prime Minister Narendra Modi are seen as part of the party’s efforts in that direction.
A strident attack on JDS is also part of a larger strategy. It plans to make big gains in the region at the cost of the regional party by projecting itself as a stronger alternative to anti-Congress voters in the Vokkaliga bastion.
The BJP sees JDS as an impediment in its attempts to get a clear majority in the state as the Old Mysuru region has largely remained out of bounds for it as far as Assembly polls are concerned, though it did well in the last Lok Sabha elections. The BJP has come to power in the state several times, but its best performance has been 110 seats, just three short of a simple majority, under BS Yediyurappa’s leadership in 2008.
Now to bridge that gap, it is striving to occupy the JDS space in the region. Except in the Old Mysuru region, the BJP has managed to grow in all regions at the cost of anti-Congress parties as the Grand Old Party’s support base across the state remains intact. But, for now, the BJP will be satisfied with making it a strong three-way fight in the Old Mysuru region and not letting Congress have a clear advantage.
On its part, the JDS is not confining itself to the Old Mysuru region alone. It is wooing Lingayats to get at least a few seats in North Karnataka and is trying to get support from Telugu-speaking voters in the border districts by joining hands with Telangana Chief Minister KC Chandrashekar Rao’s party Bharat Rashtra Samiti.
The JDS, which is confident of retaining support from Vokkaligas, is going to polls with former Union Minister CM Ibrahim as the state unit president to send a clear message to the minorities. Apart from strong backing from the Vokkaligas, the regional party needs support from at least one more community to make it big in the polls. The party seems to rely on the minority community to give it that much-needed push. This is where the BJP’s attack can assist them.