Every election is different. A combination of factors, including regional and national issues, local leadership, and caste dynamics, play a decisive role in elections. While it is difficult to draw parallels between the Bihar elections with that of politics elsewhere, there are some key takeaways from it for parties in Karnataka and its neighbouring states, as political action is set to shift to the southern states.
While the Siddaramaiah government would complete its halfway mark on November 20 to enter the second half of its five-year tenure, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Puducherry, along with Assam and West Bengal, would go to polls next year.
The National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA’s) landslide victory in the fiercely fought polls in Bihar showed that the performance of incumbents matters as much as the ability to sew up solid political alliances and work towards a common goal. It also demonstrated that voters were not too impressed by the opposition’s aggressive campaign on the SIR (Special Intensive Revision) of electoral rolls and “vote chori” allegations against the Election Commission of India (ECI). The SIR was the fulcrum of Congress’s campaign in Bihar, while Rahul Gandhi had launched his campaign against alleged “vote chori” from Bengaluru.
Some of those factors should ring a warning bell for the ruling Congress in Karnataka. There is also a lesson for the BJP and its alliance partner Janata Dal (Secular) as they prepare to work together for a series of polls, including the next assembly elections in 2028.
For Congress, the message is clear. Keep the narrative around the State Government’s performance. Their focus should be on highlighting the positive impact of its flagship social welfare schemes, and more importantly, dispelling the notion of not doing anything major beyond the five guarantee schemes.
Currently, the Congress and its government do not seem to have full control over the narrative. It is fighting perception battles on many fronts, including uncertainty over the leadership issue, while its image took a dent due to serious allegations of financial irregularities and other controversies.
The competitive spirit among the state Congress leaders to impress their central leadership over its campaign against the ECI and the Union Government is understandable. But, Bihar elections showed that the party failed to convince the voters or they simply rejected its allegations.
Congress may be justified in criticising the ECI or the Union Government, but as the party in power in Karnataka its focus should be more on adopting new initiatives to advance its development agenda and shape the narrative around it. Give politics just as much attention as it requires, while staying focused on governance.
Post-Bihar shocker, the Congress leaders would do well to reassess their strategies. The party’s central leadership would certainly be more cautious in its approach to handling Karnataka issues. It would be wary of doing anything that could antagonize its strongman, Siddaramaiah.
The I.N.D.I.A bloc’s inability to stop NDA’s winning streak and Congress being pushed to the fringes of politics in Bihar is likely to weaken the authority of the party’s central leadership.
This in turn could strengthen Siddaramaiah as Congress needs a strong and dependable local leader, if it has to take on the might of the BJP’s well-oiled election machinery, coupled with a strong leadershipat the Centre. That was the case in Karnataka in 2023 when the Siddaramaiah-Shivakumar combination wrested power from the BJP.
Going forward, Siddaramaiah could be more assertive in the government and the party. It is interesting to see how AICC president Mallikarjun Kharge, who is from Karnataka, reacts, and how much space he would be willing to concede to the party’s regional satrap Siddaramaiah, who has carefully built his image as a champion of the backward classes and minorities, and cultivated his own set of leaders within the party.
The message from Bihar is equally important for the BJP-JDS. While it acts as a morale booster for their cadre ahead of the local bodies’ polls, it drives home the need for putting together a strong alliance and ensuring proper coordination among them. Their goal would be to replicate the kind of coalition synergy in the NDA that delivered results in Bihar, to take on the Congress in Karnataka. It is not easy, but not impossible.
Former CM HD Kumaraswamy’s induction into Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s cabinet and the prominence he is getting in the Union Government has helped JDS retain its significance in the Vokkaliga-dominated Old Mysuru region, even after the regional party’s not-so-impressive performance in the recent polls.
Former PM HD Deve Gowda remains the tallest leader of the community, though DK Shivakumar has emerged as a strong Vokkaliga leader within Congress. The BJP is a relatively new entrant into the battle for supremacy in the Old Mysuru region.
The regional party would be keen to regain its lost ground in the region,and the BJP wants to retain its base in Lingayat-dominated North Karnataka. But what is equally – or even more – important, is their ability to work as coalition partners with a common goal by setting aside personal aspirations. The upcoming local body polls, including civic body elections in Bengaluru, would put Congress and BJP-JDS strategies to the test.