BENGALURU: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) and weather experts have termed it a failed monsoon period, as Karnataka has recorded a 41% rain deficit during the first month after the onset of the Southwest monsoon.
Experts do not cite the El Nino effect as the only reason. They say less weather systems were formed in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. They cautioned that this will have an impact on the economy of the state and the country as a whole. They said a similar situation was experienced in 2023 and its ripple effects continued through 2024. They also urged the Central and state governments to draw out long-term drought management plans as occurrence and impacts of El Nino are becoming more frequent.
According to IMD data, against the normal forecast of 162.5mm, the state has recorded only 95.2mm rainfall. In addition, against the normal forecast of 89mm, Bengaluru has recorded only 66mm of rain till June 25.
The IMD’s senior scientist CS Patil said, EL Nino is behind the failure of monsoon this year. The pressure systems have been very weak. “There were no weather systems this year during the monsoon period in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. July–August is the peak monsoon period. Due to poor monsoon and wind patterns, the temperatures have started to soar in many places across the state. Kalaburagi recorded a maximum temperature of 38°C recently,” he said, adding that while Karnataka as a whole has recorded a 42% rain deficit, in coastal Karnataka alone it was 50% and in Bengaluru it was 25%.
Former director of Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC) GS Srinivas Reddy said that in 2023, there was a 62% rainfall deficit in the state.
The Southwest monsoon has moved up north, but it is weak. Its onset was also very poor in the Andamans. “The El Nino effect is yet to be in full force, and it may become worse. Strong monsoon winds are not moving from the oceans. This will lead to a rise in temperatures during July and August if the monsoon fails.”
A weather expert working with the government said, “We cannot do cloud seeding because of the deficiency of the required amount of clouds. Also, by the time the government floats tenders and selects experts, the season will end. Short-term solutions will not work. It is time the government finds long-term solutions.”
Prof J Srinivasan, a distinguished scientist at the Divecha Centre for Climate Change, IISc, said that even though there is data on the impacts of El Nino, more information is required to ascertain the exact cause of the failure of monsoon, as global warming is also playing a role.
Referring to the 2023 report ‘Persistent effect of El Nino on Global Economic Growth’, Prof Srinivasan said El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects weather globally and has many important socioeconomic impacts.
BRACE FOR SUPER EL NINO IMPACT: DR G TELLS OFFICIALS
Bengaluru: Deputy Chief Minister Dr G Parameshwara on Thursday directed revenue officials to take precautionary measures and work in tandem with their counterparts in other departments to effectively tackle drought-like conditions that may prevail in the state in the coming months due to the impact of super El Nino. According to data revealed by the officials at a meeting on disaster management, 122 taluks are facing shortage of drinking water. Arrangements have been made to supply water by tankers to 139 villages. In all, 789 private borewells are being used to supply water to 669 villages, the officials said.